KC at MIA

Pick

Confidence

23.2%

Margin

-6.5

Odds

+331

Model Read

The home-team number says MIA wins about 23 out of 100 times. Because the pick is KC, use the other side of that math: KC wins about 77 out of 100 times. The -6.5 margin is written from MIA's side, so it means KC by about 6.5 points. Odds +331 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick KC: 76.8% win prob | margin -6.5 pts | confidence: 76.8% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1.1e+03, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.5, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.45; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1.1e+03, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.5, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.45

Player Props

Game Prop Board

Market


M.Willis QB	MIA	QB pass yds	197.5	174.5	+23.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
M.Washington WR	MIA	Receiving yds	24.8	38.5	-13.7	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
T.Thornton WR	KC	Receiving yds	30.5	18.5	+12.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Rush yds	72.8	82.5	-9.7	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
R.Rice WR	KC	Receiving yds	55.5	47.5	+8.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Receiving yds	31.7	38.5	-6.8	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
C.Bell WR	MIA	Receiving yds	13.5	19.5	-6.0	draftkings	O -112 / U -112	Low	OK
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Receiving yds	28.5	22.5	+6.0	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
D.Achane RB	MIA	Rush yds	55.0	59.5	-4.5	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	QB pass yds	240.3	236.5	+3.8	draftkings	O -112 / U -112	High	OK
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Rush yds	12.3	8.5	+3.8	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	Medium	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	Receiving yds	53.9	52.5	+1.4	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	High	OK
E.Johnson RB	KC	Rush yds	24.4	25.5	-1.1	fanduel	O -113 / U -113	Low	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Qb Passing Tds	2.6	1.5	+1.1	fanduel	O -170 / U +130	High	OK
N.Bolton LB	KC	Sacks	0.1	1.0	-0.9	draftkings	O +361 / U -	Medium	OK
D.Tranquill LB	KC	Sacks	0.1	1.0	-0.9	draftkings	O +356 / U -	Medium	OK
J.Brooks LB	MIA	Sacks	0.3	1.0	-0.7	draftkings	O +547 / U -	Medium	OK
Z.Biggers DL	MIA	Sacks	0.3	1.0	-0.7	fanduel	O +430 / U -	Medium	OK
M.Willis QB	MIA	Qb Passing Tds	0.9	0.5	+0.4	hardrock	O -230 / U +165	High	OK
N.Remigio WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1700 / U -	Medium	OK
B.Smith RB	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1500 / U -	Medium	OK
E.Johnson RB	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +320 / U -	Low	OK
C.Bell WR	MIA	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +600 / U -	Low	OK
W.Kacmarek TE	MIA	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1000 / U -	Low	OK
D.Herman RB	MIA	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +3000 / U -	Low	OK
J.Briningstool TE	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +1600 / U -	Low	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +550 / U -	High	OK
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Anytime Td	0.1	0.5	-0.4	draftkings	O +400 / U -	High	OK
T.Thornton WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +475 / U -	High	OK
M.Washington WR	MIA	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +340 / U -	High	OK
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +500 / U -	Medium	OK
P.Mahomes QB	KC	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +340 / U -	High	OK
M.Willis QB	MIA	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +330 / U -	High	OK
R.Miller WR	MIA	Anytime Td	0.2	0.5	-0.3	draftkings	O +1800 / U -	Medium	Injury Review
T.Kelce TE	KC	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	draftkings	O +155 / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.3	0.5	-0.2	draftkings	O +190 / U -	High	OK
D.Achane RB	MIA	Anytime Td	0.4	0.5	-0.1	draftkings	O +115 / U -	High	OK
Z.Sieler DL	MIA	Sacks	0.3	0.3	+0.1	draftkings	O +236 / U -308	Medium	OK
K.Walker RB	KC	Anytime Td	0.6	0.5	+0.1	draftkings	O -195 / U -	High	OK
R.Rice WR	KC	Anytime Td	0.6	0.5	+0.1	draftkings	O +125 / U -	High	OK
C.Robinson LB	MIA	Sacks	0.3	0.3	+0.0	draftkings	O +208 / U -269	Medium	OK
G.Karlaftis DL	KC	Sacks	0.3	0.3	+0.0	draftkings	O -136 / U +108	Medium	OK
C.Jones DL	KC	Sacks	0.3	0.3	+0.0	draftkings	O +105 / U -132	Medium	Injury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

Market


K.Walker RB	KC	Rb Rushing Tds	0.5	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
D.Achane RB	MIA	Rb Rushing Tds	0.4	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
T.Kelce TE	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Rice WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
G.Dulcich TE	MIA	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
M.Washington WR	MIA	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
X.Worthy WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
J.Wright RB	MIA	Anytime Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Exclusion
J.Wright RB	MIA	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Exclusion
J.Wright RB	MIA	Rush yds	17.9	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	Injury Exclusion
T.Thornton WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
N.Gray TE	KC	Receiving yds	12.7	-	-	-	O - / U -	High	OK
R.Miller WR	MIA	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Injury Review
R.Miller WR	MIA	Receiving yds	22.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Injury Review
W.Gay LB	MIA	Sacks	0.3	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
N.Williams DB	KC	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
C.Conner DB	KC	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Injury Exclusion
A.Gillotte DL	KC	Sacks	0.2	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Marshall DB	MIA	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
B.Smith RB	KC	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
B.Smith RB	KC	Rush yds	13.6	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
Jo.Phillips DL	MIA	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
J.Hicks DB	KC	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
O.Gordon RB	MIA	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
C.McDonald LB	KC	Sacks	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	Roster Exclusion
N.Remigio WR	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
N.Remigio WR	KC	Receiving yds	9.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Medium	OK
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Anytime Td	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Exclusion
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Exclusion
C.Douglas WR	MIA	Receiving yds	39.8	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	Injury Exclusion
E.Johnson RB	KC	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
D.Herman RB	MIA	Rb Rushing Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
D.Herman RB	MIA	Rush yds	6.9	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
C.Bell WR	MIA	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
J.Briningstool TE	KC	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
J.Briningstool TE	KC	Receiving yds	15.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
W.Kacmarek TE	MIA	Wrte Receiving Tds	0.1	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK
W.Kacmarek TE	MIA	Receiving yds	10.4	-	-	-	O - / U -	Low	OK

Player Projections

QB Projections

Market


P.Mahomes #15	KC	1	128	285.2	2.1	24.5	0.6	21.1
M.Willis #2	MIA	1	2	208.5	0.5	14.5	0.0	22.5

Offense Projections

Market


K.Walker #9	KC	1	2	145.0	39.5	4.5	8.0	184.5	1.0
R.Miller #84	MIA	1	1	0.0	154.0	2.0	2.0	154.0	2.0
T.Kelce #87	KC	2	193	0.1	68.3	5.7	7.9	68.3	0.4
D.Achane #28	MIA	2	46	68.8	28.8	3.9	4.8	97.7	0.8
R.Rice #4	KC	3	29	0.6	65.5	5.6	7.5	66.1	0.6
C.Douglas #7	MIA	3	2	0.0	56.5	3.5	5.0	56.5	0.0
G.Dulcich #85	MIA	4	11	-0.6	33.6	2.7	3.5	33.0	0.1
E.Johnson #10	KC	4	2	19.5	32.0	2.0	2.0	51.5	0.0
X.Worthy #1	KC	5	32	6.0	37.9	3.4	5.8	43.9	0.3
M.Washington #6	MIA	5	31	4.5	20.5	2.5	3.7	25.0	0.2
J.Wright #5	MIA	6	24	22.8	2.2	0.3	0.6	25.0	0.1
T.Thornton #2	KC	6	14	0.0	37.4	1.6	3.0	37.4	0.2
B.Smith #24	KC	7	18	8.4	9.6	1.4	1.9	17.9	0.1
D.Herman #34	MIA	7	1	0.0	18.0	1.0	3.0	18.0	0.0
N.Gray #83	KC	8	72	0.0	17.5	1.7	2.4	17.5	0.1
O.Gordon #0	MIA	8	18	11.4	1.8	0.4	0.5	13.2	0.2
C.Bell #18	MIA	9	2	0.0	12.5	0.5	1.5	12.5	0.0
J.Briningstool #88	KC	9	1	0.0	9.0	1.0	1.0	9.0	0.0
N.Remigio #81	KC	10	17	0.6	4.1	0.2	0.4	4.7	0.0
W.Kacmarek #89	MIA	10	2	0.0	2.0	0.5	1.0	2.0	0.0

Defense Projections

Market


C.Jones #95	KC	1	125	0.7	1.8	0.8	9.1
C.Robinson #44	MIA	1	15	0.7	1.4	0.8	7.5
G.Karlaftis #56	KC	2	51	0.6	1.6	0.7	6.2
W.Gay #40	MIA	2	3	0.7	0.7	1.0	6.3
Z.Sieler #92	MIA	3	68	0.5	1.1	0.9	8.1
N.Williams #20	KC	3	2	0.5	0.5	2.0	13.0
D.Tranquill #23	KC	4	24	0.3	0.8	0.9	4.5
Z.Biggers #93	MIA	4	4	0.4	1.0	0.3	4.1
J.Brooks #20	MIA	5	22	0.3	0.5	1.1	5.8
C.Conner #27	KC	5	14	0.2	0.6	0.7	4.4
A.Gillotte #97	KC	6	8	0.2	1.0	0.4	1.0
J.Marshall #4	MIA	6	2	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.5
N.Bolton #32	KC	7	44	0.1	0.6	0.9	3.8
Jo.Phillips #94	MIA	7	2	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.5
J.Hicks #21	KC	8	5	0.1	0.4	0.6	2.5
C.McDonald #44	KC	9	1	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0

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