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Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
LAC at BUF
Pick
LAC
Confidence
48.4%
Margin
+5.7
Odds
+107
Model Read
The home-team number says BUF wins about 48 out of 100 times. Because the pick is LAC, use the other side of that math: LAC wins about 52 out of 100 times. The +5.7 margin is written from BUF's side, so it means BUF by about 5.7 points. Odds +107 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick LAC: 51.6% win prob | margin +5.7 pts | confidence: 51.6% away | Offense diffs: favor indoor_diff=-1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+4.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.45, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.4 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+4.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.45, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.4; oppose indoor_diff=-1
Player Props
Game Prop Board
K.Coleman WR | BUF | Receiving yds | 34.9 | 14.5 | +20.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
J.Cook RB | BUF | Rush yds | 59.7 | 79.5 | -19.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Allen QB | BUF | QB pass yds | 220.3 | 239.5 | -19.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Herbert QB | LAC | QB pass yds | 240.7 | 229.5 | +11.2 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
O.Hampton RB | LAC | Rush yds | 68.7 | 58.5 | +10.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
K.Mitchell RB | LAC | Rush yds | 22.9 | 14.5 | +8.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Knox TE | BUF | Receiving yds | 16.4 | 8.5 | +7.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Harris WR | LAC | Receiving yds | 25.1 | 31.5 | -6.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
K.Shakir WR | BUF | Receiving yds | 36.4 | 42.5 | -6.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Kincaid TE | BUF | Receiving yds | 53.7 | 57.5 | -3.8 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
L.McConkey WR | LAC | Receiving yds | 56.2 | 59.5 | -3.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
O.Gadsden TE | LAC | Receiving yds | 34.7 | 37.5 | -2.8 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | Medium | OK |
Q.Johnston WR | LAC | Receiving yds | 37.7 | 35.5 | +2.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
T.Bernard LB | BUF | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | fanduel | O +410 / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
J.Allen QB | BUF | Qb Passing Tds | 2.4 | 1.5 | +0.9 | fanduel | O -160 / U +122 | High | OK |
D.Walker DL | BUF | Sacks | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.8 | draftkings | O +397 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Moore WR | BUF | Receiving yds | 47.8 | 48.5 | -0.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
K.Mack LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.4 | draftkings | O +143 / U -183 | Medium | OK |
T.Harris WR | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +475 / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Herbert QB | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +475 / U - | High | OK |
K.Mitchell RB | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +550 / U - | High | OK |
K.Shakir WR | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +200 / U - | High | OK |
Ty.Johnson RB | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +450 / U - | High | OK |
K.Vidal RB | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1300 / U - | High | OK |
J.Hawes TE | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1000 / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Davis RB | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1200 / U - | High | OK |
J.Palmer WR | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +450 / U - | High | OK |
K.Coleman WR | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +400 / U - | High | Injury Review |
D.Kincaid TE | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +155 / U - | High | OK |
O.Gadsden TE | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +240 / U - | Medium | OK |
Q.Johnston WR | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +310 / U - | High | OK |
D.Knox TE | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +500 / U - | High | OK |
D.Moore WR | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +185 / U - | High | Injury Review |
L.McConkey WR | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +220 / U - | High | OK |
G.Rousseau LB | BUF | Sacks | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -124 / U -103 | Medium | OK |
J.Allen QB | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.1 | draftkings | O -130 / U - | High | OK |
O.Hampton RB | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -135 / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Cook RB | BUF | Anytime Td | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.1 | draftkings | O -165 / U - | High | OK |
T.Tuipulotu LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +124 / U -157 | Medium | OK |
J.Herbert QB | LAC | Qb Passing Tds | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.0 | hardrock | O +130 / U -165 | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
J.Cook RB | BUF | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Moore WR | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
L.McConkey WR | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Kincaid TE | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Vidal RB | LAC | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Vidal RB | LAC | Rush yds | 11.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Shakir WR | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Coleman WR | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
Q.Johnston WR | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Njoku TE | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
D.Njoku TE | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
D.Njoku TE | LAC | Receiving yds | 25.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
R.Davis RB | BUF | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Davis RB | BUF | Rush yds | 20.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
K.Mitchell RB | LAC | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
Ty.Johnson RB | BUF | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
Ty.Johnson RB | BUF | Rush yds | 16.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Knox TE | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Palmer WR | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Palmer WR | BUF | Receiving yds | 28.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Kolar TE | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Kolar TE | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Kolar TE | LAC | Receiving yds | 12.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
D.Phillips LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
O.Hampton RB | LAC | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Sanders DL | BUF | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
T.Lance QB | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
T.Lance QB | LAC | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
T.Lance QB | LAC | QB pass yds | 78.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
B.Dupree LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
O.Gadsden TE | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Eboigbe DL | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Solomon LB | BUF | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Murphy LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Bishop DB | BUF | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
D.James DB | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Benford DB | BUF | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Henley LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Harris WR | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Dye LB | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Andreessen LB | BUF | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Caldwell DL | LAC | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Hawes TE | BUF | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Hawes TE | BUF | Receiving yds | 14.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Hoecht LB | BUF | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
E.Oliver DL | BUF | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Review |
B.Thompson WR | LAC | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
B.Thompson WR | LAC | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
B.Thompson WR | LAC | Receiving yds | 13.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
Player Projections
QB Projections
J.Allen #17 | BUF | 1 | 128 | 239.5 | 1.8 | 20.7 | 0.7 | 37.6 |
J.Herbert #10 | LAC | 1 | 97 | 260.0 | 1.7 | 23.9 | 0.5 | 18.0 |
T.Lance #5 | LAC | 2 | 4 | 56.5 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 21.2 |
Offense Projections
J.Cook #4 | BUF | 1 | 68 | 65.5 | 17.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 83.0 | 0.6 |
O.Hampton #8 | LAC | 1 | 11 | 62.0 | 19.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 81.4 | 0.6 |
L.McConkey #15 | LAC | 2 | 34 | 0.0 | 60.4 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 60.4 | 0.4 |
D.Moore #2 | BUF | 2 | 2 | -0.5 | 50.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 49.5 | 0.5 |
D.Kincaid #86 | BUF | 3 | 43 | 0.0 | 44.6 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 44.6 | 0.2 |
K.Vidal #28 | LAC | 3 | 23 | 34.7 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 43.3 | 0.2 |
K.Shakir #10 | BUF | 4 | 59 | 0.3 | 40.7 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 41.0 | 0.2 |
O.Gadsden #86 | LAC | 4 | 17 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 42.0 | 0.2 |
Q.Johnston #1 | LAC | 5 | 47 | 0.6 | 40.4 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 41.1 | 0.4 |
K.Coleman #0 | BUF | 5 | 27 | 0.3 | 37.9 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 38.3 | 0.3 |
R.Davis #7 | BUF | 6 | 35 | 20.6 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 28.4 | 0.2 |
D.Njoku #83 | LAC | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 33.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 33.5 | 0.0 |
Ty.Johnson #26 | BUF | 7 | 41 | 13.3 | 14.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 28.1 | 0.2 |
K.Mitchell #34 | LAC | 7 | 2 | 16.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 24.0 | 0.0 |
D.Knox #88 | BUF | 8 | 98 | 0.1 | 27.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 27.7 | 0.3 |
T.Harris #9 | LAC | 8 | 18 | 0.6 | 22.1 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 22.6 | 0.1 |
J.Palmer #5 | BUF | 9 | 14 | 0.0 | 27.1 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 27.1 | 0.1 |
B.Thompson #89 | LAC | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 |
J.Hawes #85 | BUF | 10 | 13 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 14.4 | 0.2 |
C.Kolar #88 | LAC | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
T.Sanders #98 | BUF | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
D.Phillips #53 | LAC | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 |
K.Mack #52 | LAC | 2 | 43 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 12.0 |
M.Hoecht #55 | BUF | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 7.3 |
G.Rousseau #15 | BUF | 3 | 59 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7.3 |
B.Dupree #48 | LAC | 3 | 10 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 8.3 |
E.Oliver #91 | BUF | 4 | 63 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 7.8 |
T.Tuipulotu #45 | LAC | 4 | 34 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8.4 |
J.Solomon #56 | BUF | 5 | 8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 8.3 |
J.Eboigbe #92 | LAC | 5 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8.4 |
T.Bernard #8 | BUF | 6 | 21 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5.6 |
C.Murphy #50 | LAC | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
D.James #3 | LAC | 7 | 44 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 6.4 |
C.Bishop #24 | BUF | 7 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 5.0 |
D.Henley #0 | LAC | 8 | 14 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 6.0 |
C.Benford #47 | BUF | 8 | 11 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 6.6 |
T.Dye #43 | LAC | 9 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
D.Walker #96 | BUF | 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
J.Caldwell #99 | LAC | 10 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
J.Andreessen #44 | BUF | 10 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |