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Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
NE at JAX
Pick
NE
Confidence
42.8%
Margin
+1.9
Odds
+134
Model Read
The home-team number says JAX wins about 43 out of 100 times. Because the pick is NE, use the other side of that math: NE wins about 57 out of 100 times. The +1.9 margin is written from JAX's side, so it means JAX by about 1.9 points. Odds +134 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick NE: 57.2% win prob | margin +1.9 pts | confidence: 57.2% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-2.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.15; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-2.7e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.25, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.15
Player Props
Game Prop Board
D.Maye QB | NE | QB pass yds | 203.5 | 222.5 | -19.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
P.Washington WR | JAX | Receiving yds | 53.9 | 70.5 | -16.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
B.Tuten RB | JAX | Rush yds | 34.4 | 50.5 | -16.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
T.Lawrence QB | JAX | QB pass yds | 213.7 | 228.5 | -14.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
Bri.Thomas WR | JAX | Receiving yds | 48.9 | 34.5 | +14.4 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | Injury Review |
T.Henderson RB | NE | Rush yds | 54.4 | 41.5 | +12.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
R.Stevenson RB | NE | Rush yds | 46.4 | 35.5 | +10.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Rodriguez RB | JAX | Rush yds | 28.1 | 20.5 | +7.6 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
D.Douglas WR | NE | Receiving yds | 21.6 | 28.5 | -6.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
K.Williams WR | NE | Receiving yds | 12.5 | 7.5 | +5.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
H.Henry TE | NE | Receiving yds | 36.5 | 41.5 | -5.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
M.Hollins WR | NE | Receiving yds | 30.1 | 33.5 | -3.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
B.Strange TE | JAX | Receiving yds | 27.4 | 30.5 | -3.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Striggow DL | JAX | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +630 / U - | Medium | OK |
F.Oluokun LB | JAX | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +680 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Gardeck LB | JAX | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +296 / U - | Medium | OK |
L.Allen RB | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1300 / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
N.Boerkircher TE | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +950 / U - | Low | OK |
D.Douglas WR | NE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +425 / U - | High | OK |
A.Abdullah RB | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +850 / U - | High | OK |
M.Hollins WR | NE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | High | OK |
D.Maye QB | NE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +320 / U - | High | OK |
K.Williams WR | NE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +950 / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Maye QB | NE | Qb Passing Tds | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +132 / U -169 | High | OK |
J.Meyers WR | JAX | Receiving yds | 35.2 | 35.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
H.Henry TE | NE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +250 / U - | High | OK |
J.Meyers WR | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +270 / U - | High | OK |
T.Lawrence QB | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +310 / U - | High | OK |
J.Cameron WR | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1100 / U - | Low | OK |
B.Strange TE | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +295 / U - | High | OK |
J.Allen DL | JAX | Sacks | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | draftkings | O -107 / U -118 | Medium | OK |
R.Doubs WR | NE | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +280 / U - | High | OK |
R.Doubs WR | NE | Receiving yds | 42.7 | 42.5 | +0.2 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Rodriguez RB | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +275 / U - | High | OK |
Bri.Thomas WR | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +280 / U - | High | Injury Review |
R.Stevenson RB | NE | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +135 / U - | High | OK |
T.Walker DL | JAX | Sacks | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.2 | draftkings | O -111 / U -114 | Medium | OK |
P.Washington WR | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +155 / U - | High | OK |
C.Barmore DL | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +179 / U -231 | Medium | OK |
B.Tuten RB | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +150 / U - | Medium | OK |
E.Ponder LB | NE | Sacks | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +202 / U -262 | Medium | OK |
T.Lawrence QB | JAX | Qb Passing Tds | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.0 | draftkings | O -113 / U -112 | High | OK |
M.Williams DL | NE | Sacks | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.0 | draftkings | O +223 / U -291 | Medium | OK |
T.Henderson RB | NE | Anytime Td | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.0 | draftkings | O +170 / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Armstead DL | JAX | Sacks | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.0 | draftkings | O +213 / U -277 | Medium | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
Bri.Thomas WR | JAX | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
R.Stevenson RB | NE | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Meyers WR | JAX | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
N.Mullens QB | JAX | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
N.Mullens QB | JAX | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
N.Mullens QB | JAX | QB pass yds | 50.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
P.Washington WR | JAX | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Doubs WR | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
M.Hollins WR | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Strange TE | JAX | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
H.Henry TE | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Abdullah RB | JAX | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Abdullah RB | JAX | Rush yds | 15.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Douglas WR | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Brown WR | NE | Anytime Td | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
A.Brown WR | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
A.Brown WR | NE | Receiving yds | 61.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Roster Exclusion |
C.Rodriguez RB | JAX | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Green DL | JAX | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
D.Pettus DB | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
A.Johnson DB | JAX | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Henderson RB | NE | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Tuten RB | JAX | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
E.Murray DB | JAX | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Gonzalez DB | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Jones DB | JAX | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Spillane LB | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
Ma.Jones DB | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
C.Elliss LB | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
K.Williams WR | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
L.Allen RB | JAX | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
L.Allen RB | JAX | Rush yds | 7.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
L.Taylor DL | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Pharms DL | NE | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
E.Raridon TE | NE | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Review |
E.Raridon TE | NE | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Review |
E.Raridon TE | NE | Receiving yds | 16.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Review |
J.Cameron WR | JAX | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
J.Cameron WR | JAX | Receiving yds | 12.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
N.Boerkircher TE | JAX | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
N.Boerkircher TE | JAX | Receiving yds | 13.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
L.Larison RB | NE | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
L.Larison RB | NE | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
L.Larison RB | NE | Rush yds | 6.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
T.Lawrence #16 | JAX | 1 | 79 | 231.1 | 1.3 | 21.1 | 0.6 | 18.4 |
D.Maye #10 | NE | 1 | 32 | 220.5 | 1.5 | 19.3 | 0.3 | 29.2 |
N.Mullens #14 | JAX | 2 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -2.2 |
Offense Projections
R.Stevenson #38 | NE | 1 | 72 | 52.3 | 18.6 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 70.9 | 0.4 |
Bri.Thomas #7 | JAX | 1 | 33 | 2.1 | 62.7 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 64.8 | 0.4 |
T.Henderson #32 | NE | 2 | 18 | 54.8 | 12.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 67.1 | 0.6 |
J.Meyers #3 | JAX | 2 | 11 | 1.4 | 50.1 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 51.5 | 0.4 |
P.Washington #11 | JAX | 3 | 37 | 0.0 | 41.9 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 41.9 | 0.3 |
R.Doubs #87 | NE | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 48.0 | 0.0 |
B.Tuten #33 | JAX | 4 | 17 | 25.8 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 31.5 | 0.5 |
M.Hollins #13 | NE | 4 | 16 | 0.2 | 38.7 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 38.9 | 0.1 |
H.Henry #85 | NE | 5 | 80 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 38.0 | 0.3 |
B.Strange #85 | JAX | 5 | 33 | 0.0 | 31.1 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 31.1 | 0.2 |
D.Douglas #3 | NE | 6 | 48 | 1.6 | 34.5 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 36.2 | 0.1 |
A.Abdullah #20 | JAX | 6 | 2 | 21.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.5 | 0.0 |
C.Rodriguez #24 | JAX | 7 | 2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
A.Brown #1 | NE | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 |
J.Cameron #19 | JAX | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.5 |
E.Raridon #82 | NE | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 0.5 |
K.Williams #18 | NE | 9 | 16 | 0.2 | 13.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 13.9 | 0.2 |
N.Boerkircher #87 | JAX | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
L.Allen #5 | JAX | 10 | 17 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 8.7 | 0.0 |
L.Larison #34 | NE | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
B.Green #95 | JAX | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
D.Pettus #24 | NE | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 |
E.Ponder #91 | NE | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 6.4 |
A.Johnson #6 | JAX | 2 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5.3 |
J.Allen #41 | JAX | 3 | 90 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 10.1 |
C.Barmore #90 | NE | 3 | 35 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
T.Walker #44 | JAX | 4 | 49 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 9.1 |
M.Williams #97 | NE | 4 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6.1 |
J.Pharms #98 | NE | 5 | 6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 4.7 |
E.Murray #29 | JAX | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.5 |
A.Armstead #91 | JAX | 6 | 17 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 5.7 |
C.Gonzalez #0 | NE | 6 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.5 |
J.Jones #4 | JAX | 7 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
R.Spillane #14 | NE | 7 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
Ma.Jones #25 | NE | 8 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
D.Striggow #92 | JAX | 8 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
D.Gardeck #47 | JAX | 9 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
C.Elliss #53 | NE | 9 | 7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
F.Oluokun #23 | JAX | 10 | 33 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
L.Taylor #93 | NE | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |