Back to week 3
Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
NYJ at DET
Pick
DET
Confidence
53.3%
Margin
+5.0
Odds
-114
Model Read
The model says DET wins about 53 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +5.0 margin is written from DET's side, so it means DET by about 5.0 points. Odds -114 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick DET: 53.3% win prob | margin +5.0 pts | confidence: 53.3% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+5.8e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.25; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+5.8e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.25
Player Props
Game Prop Board
G.Smith QB | NYJ | QB pass yds | 271.3 | 227.5 | +43.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
I.Williams WR | NYJ | Receiving yds | 21.8 | 34.5 | -12.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
J.Gibbs RB | DET | Rush yds | 77.2 | 89.5 | -12.3 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
J.Williams WR | DET | Receiving yds | 42.5 | 52.5 | -10.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
A.Mitchell WR | NYJ | Receiving yds | 33.8 | 43.5 | -9.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | Injury Review |
J.Goff QB | DET | QB pass yds | 251.1 | 258.5 | -7.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
K.Sadiq TE | NYJ | Receiving yds | 23.6 | 30.5 | -6.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
S.Vaki RB | DET | Rush yds | 5.2 | 10.5 | -5.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
S.LaPorta TE | DET | Receiving yds | 50.5 | 45.5 | +5.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
I.TeSlaa WR | DET | Receiving yds | 19.1 | 15.5 | +3.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
B.Hall RB | NYJ | Rush yds | 63.8 | 60.5 | +3.3 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
J.Ruckert TE | NYJ | Receiving yds | 10.9 | 8.5 | +2.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
G.Wilson WR | NYJ | Receiving yds | 75.5 | 77.5 | -2.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
B.Allen RB | NYJ | Rush yds | 19.5 | 17.5 | +2.0 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
A.St. Brown WR | DET | Receiving yds | 77.8 | 76.5 | +1.3 | draftkings | O -112 / U -112 | High | OK |
J.Campbell LB | DET | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | fanduel | O +430 / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Goff QB | DET | Qb Passing Tds | 1.9 | 2.5 | -0.6 | draftkings | O +161 / U -208 | High | OK |
J.Gibbs RB | DET | Anytime Td | 0.9 | 0.5 | +0.4 | draftkings | O -300 / U - | High | OK |
G.Smith QB | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +850 / U - | High | OK |
J.Goff QB | DET | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1800 / U - | High | OK |
T.Kennedy WR | DET | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1700 / U - | High | OK |
J.Ruckert TE | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +800 / U - | High | OK |
S.Vaki RB | DET | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +700 / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Saylors RB | DET | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2200 / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Davis RB | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1900 / U - | High | OK |
I.Williams WR | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +330 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Martin WR | DET | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +1700 / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Wright TE | DET | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +800 / U - | High | OK |
B.Allen RB | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +300 / U - | High | OK |
D.Barnes LB | DET | Sacks | 0.7 | 1.0 | -0.3 | fanduel | O +178 / U - | Medium | OK |
G.Smith QB | NYJ | Qb Passing Tds | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +123 / U -157 | High | OK |
G.Wilson WR | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +155 / U - | High | OK |
J.Williams WR | DET | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +150 / U - | High | OK |
K.Sadiq TE | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +300 / U - | Low | OK |
I.TeSlaa WR | DET | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +400 / U - | Medium | OK |
S.LaPorta TE | DET | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +175 / U - | High | OK |
B.Hall RB | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -110 / U - | High | OK |
A.St. Brown WR | DET | Anytime Td | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.0 | draftkings | O -140 / U - | High | OK |
A.Hutchinson DL | DET | Sacks | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.0 | draftkings | O -139 / U +110 | Medium | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
B.Hall RB | NYJ | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Gibbs RB | DET | Rb Rushing Tds | 1.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.St. Brown WR | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
G.Wilson WR | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Mitchell WR | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
A.Mitchell WR | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Review |
J.Williams WR | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
S.LaPorta TE | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Allen RB | NYJ | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Wright TE | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
B.Wright TE | DET | Receiving yds | 11.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
I.Davis RB | NYJ | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
I.Davis RB | NYJ | Rush yds | 10.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Kennedy WR | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.Kennedy WR | DET | Receiving yds | 8.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
J.Ruckert TE | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
W.McDonald LB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
B.McGregor LB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Lacy DL | DET | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.McNeill DL | DET | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Briggs DL | NYJ | Sacks | 0.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Sherwood LB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Nowaske LB | DET | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
H.Phillips DL | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.TeSlaa WR | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
B.Stephens DB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Taylor TE | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
M.Taylor TE | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
M.Taylor TE | NYJ | Receiving yds | 21.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
A.Cisco DB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Rodriguez LB | DET | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Brownlee DB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Vaki RB | DET | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Williams DL | DET | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
I.Williams WR | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Saylors RB | DET | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Saylors RB | DET | Rush yds | 3.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Moore DB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
R.Ya-Sin DB | DET | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Maddox DB | DET | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
A.Thomas DB | NYJ | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Martin WR | DET | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Martin WR | DET | Receiving yds | 10.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
O.Cooper WR | NYJ | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Roster Exclusion |
O.Cooper WR | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Roster Exclusion |
O.Cooper WR | NYJ | Receiving yds | 25.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Roster Exclusion |
K.Sadiq TE | NYJ | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
J.Goff #16 | DET | 1 | 84 | 261.7 | 1.9 | 23.3 | 0.5 | 3.5 |
G.Smith #7 | NYJ | 1 | 35 | 183.5 | 0.8 | 15.6 | 1.0 | 19.2 |
Offense Projections
B.Hall #20 | NYJ | 1 | 58 | 60.8 | 29.7 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 90.5 | 0.5 |
J.Gibbs #0 | DET | 1 | 51 | 74.3 | 29.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 104.1 | 1.0 |
A.St. Brown #14 | DET | 2 | 84 | 2.3 | 76.9 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 79.2 | 0.6 |
G.Wilson #5 | NYJ | 2 | 60 | 0.1 | 63.0 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 63.1 | 0.3 |
J.Williams #1 | DET | 3 | 52 | 2.7 | 49.8 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 52.6 | 0.4 |
A.Mitchell #15 | NYJ | 3 | 10 | -0.4 | 42.4 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 42.0 | 0.2 |
S.LaPorta #87 | DET | 4 | 44 | 0.1 | 50.1 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 50.2 | 0.5 |
O.Cooper #11 | NYJ | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 |
B.Allen #0 | NYJ | 5 | 23 | 19.9 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 27.4 | 0.2 |
I.TeSlaa #18 | DET | 5 | 16 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 16.6 | 0.4 |
B.Wright #89 | DET | 6 | 48 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 13.3 | 0.2 |
M.Taylor #85 | NYJ | 6 | 14 | 0.0 | 26.2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 26.2 | 0.1 |
I.Davis #32 | NYJ | 7 | 26 | 15.8 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 25.8 | 0.1 |
T.Kennedy #85 | DET | 7 | 20 | 0.0 | 11.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 11.6 | 0.0 |
S.Vaki #33 | DET | 8 | 14 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
K.Sadiq #16 | NYJ | 8 | 2 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 20.5 | 0.5 |
I.Williams #18 | NYJ | 9 | 17 | 2.8 | 13.8 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 16.6 | 0.0 |
J.Saylors #25 | DET | 9 | 13 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
J.Ruckert #89 | NYJ | 10 | 41 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
T.Martin #17 | DET | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Defense Projections
A.Hutchinson #97 | DET | 1 | 45 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
W.McDonald #9 | NYJ | 1 | 29 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 10.8 |
T.Lacy #93 | DET | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
B.McGregor #55 | NYJ | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
A.McNeill #54 | DET | 3 | 28 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 8.3 |
J.Briggs #91 | NYJ | 3 | 9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7.9 |
J.Sherwood #44 | NYJ | 4 | 21 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
T.Nowaske #53 | DET | 4 | 7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 3.6 |
J.Campbell #46 | DET | 5 | 23 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6.1 |
H.Phillips #97 | NYJ | 5 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
D.Barnes #55 | DET | 6 | 24 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
B.Stephens #21 | NYJ | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
M.Rodriguez #44 | DET | 7 | 11 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 4.2 |
A.Cisco #8 | NYJ | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
T.Williams #91 | DET | 8 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
J.Brownlee #2 | NYJ | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
M.Moore #27 | NYJ | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
R.Ya-Sin #23 | DET | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
A.Thomas #1 | NYJ | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
A.Maddox #29 | DET | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |