Back to week 3
Published Pick
Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM UTC
SEA at WAS
Pick
SEA
Confidence
19.4%
Margin
-11.1
Odds
+416
Model Read
The home-team number says WAS wins about 19 out of 100 times. Because the pick is SEA, use the other side of that math: SEA wins about 81 out of 100 times. The -11.1 margin is written from WAS's side, so it means SEA by about 11.1 points. Odds +416 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.
Raw model read: Pick SEA: 80.6% win prob | margin -11.1 pts | confidence: 80.6% away | Offense diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.55, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.35; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+60 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+60; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.55, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.35
Player Props
Game Prop Board
S.Darnold QB | SEA | QB pass yds | 116.2 | 221.5 | -105.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
M.Mariota QB | WAS | QB pass yds | 198.0 | 172.5 | +25.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
A.Williams WR | WAS | Receiving yds | 34.8 | 14.5 | +20.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
J.Smith-Njigba WR | SEA | Receiving yds | 72.0 | 90.5 | -18.5 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
S.Diggs WR | WAS | Receiving yds | 53.4 | 35.5 | +17.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
C.Kupp WR | SEA | Receiving yds | 35.3 | 19.5 | +15.8 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
R.White RB | WAS | Rush yds | 29.2 | 19.5 | +9.7 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Price RB | SEA | Rush yds | 42.9 | 52.5 | -9.6 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Low | OK |
E.Arroyo TE | SEA | Receiving yds | 13.6 | 4.5 | +9.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | OK |
T.McLaurin WR | WAS | Receiving yds | 50.6 | 42.5 | +8.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Croskey-Merritt RB | WAS | Rush yds | 43.6 | 38.5 | +5.1 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | Medium | Injury Review |
D.Brown WR | WAS | Receiving yds | 14.4 | 9.5 | +4.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
E.Wilson RB | SEA | Rush yds | 34.9 | 30.5 | +4.4 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
D.Payne DL | WAS | Sacks | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | draftkings | O +338 / U - | Medium | OK |
S.Darnold QB | SEA | Qb Passing Tds | 0.6 | 1.5 | -0.9 | hardrock | O -105 / U -125 | High | OK |
R.Shaheed WR | SEA | Receiving yds | 27.6 | 28.5 | -0.9 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
J.Reed DL | SEA | Sacks | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.7 | fanduel | O +320 / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Mariota QB | WAS | Qb Passing Tds | 1.1 | 0.5 | +0.6 | fanduel | O -164 / U +125 | High | OK |
V.Jones RB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1900 / U - | High | Injury Review |
E.Arroyo TE | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +750 / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Burks WR | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +2000 / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
J.Price RB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +145 / U - | Low | OK |
K.Allen RB | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1300 / U - | Low | OK |
D.Brown WR | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +1000 / U - | High | OK |
S.Darnold QB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +900 / U - | High | OK |
M.Mariota QB | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +475 / U - | High | OK |
L.McCaffrey WR | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.4 | draftkings | O +3500 / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
E.Wilson RB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +230 / U - | High | OK |
G.Holani RB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +390 / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Barner TE | SEA | Receiving yds | 20.2 | 20.5 | -0.3 | fanduel | O -113 / U -113 | High | OK |
L.Williams DL | SEA | Sacks | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.3 | draftkings | O +106 / U -134 | Medium | OK |
R.Shaheed WR | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +310 / U - | High | OK |
A.Williams WR | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +900 / U - | Low | OK |
C.Kupp WR | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | draftkings | O +380 / U - | High | OK |
T.McLaurin WR | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +320 / U - | High | OK |
R.White RB | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | draftkings | O +380 / U - | High | OK |
J.Croskey-Merritt RB | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +270 / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
T.Horton WR | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +800 / U - | Medium | OK |
A.Barner TE | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +320 / U - | High | OK |
J.Smith-Njigba WR | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | draftkings | O -110 / U - | High | OK |
D.Lawrence LB | SEA | Sacks | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | draftkings | O +159 / U -204 | Medium | OK |
S.Diggs WR | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.0 | draftkings | O +475 / U - | High | OK |
Projection Only
Player Prop Projections
J.Daniels QB | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
J.Daniels QB | WAS | Qb Passing Tds | 1.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
J.Daniels QB | WAS | QB pass yds | 198.7 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
J.Smith-Njigba WR | SEA | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
T.McLaurin WR | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Lock QB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Lock QB | SEA | Qb Passing Tds | 1.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Lock QB | SEA | QB pass yds | 206.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.White RB | WAS | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
E.Wilson RB | SEA | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
C.Kupp WR | SEA | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
S.Diggs WR | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
R.Shaheed WR | SEA | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
A.Barner TE | SEA | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
D.Brown WR | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | OK |
L.McCaffrey WR | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
L.McCaffrey WR | WAS | Receiving yds | 15.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Okonkwo TE | WAS | Anytime Td | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Okonkwo TE | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
C.Okonkwo TE | WAS | Receiving yds | 24.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
T.Burks WR | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
T.Burks WR | WAS | Receiving yds | 13.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | High | Injury Exclusion |
P.O'Connell LB | SEA | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
F.Luvu LB | WAS | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
B.Murphy DL | SEA | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Croskey-Merritt RB | WAS | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
J.Jean-Baptiste LB | WAS | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Armstrong LB | WAS | Sacks | 0.5 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
U.Nwosu LB | SEA | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
V.Jones RB | SEA | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
V.Jones RB | SEA | Rush yds | 6.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Review |
J.Reaves DB | WAS | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Thomas LB | SEA | Sacks | 0.4 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Martin DB | WAS | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Kinlaw DL | WAS | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Horton WR | SEA | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.6 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Horton WR | SEA | Receiving yds | 20.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Okada DB | SEA | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Injury Exclusion |
E.Arroyo TE | SEA | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
M.Sainristil DB | WAS | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
T.Knight LB | SEA | Sacks | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
D.Hall LB | SEA | Sacks | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
G.Holani RB | SEA | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
G.Holani RB | SEA | Rush yds | 15.9 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | OK |
J.Magee LB | WAS | Sacks | 0.0 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Medium | Roster Exclusion |
R.Barber DL | WAS | Sacks | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
J.Price RB | SEA | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
J.Milroe QB | SEA | Anytime Td | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
J.Milroe QB | SEA | Qb Passing Tds | 0.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
J.Milroe QB | SEA | QB pass yds | 113.3 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | Injury Exclusion |
A.Williams WR | WAS | Wrte Receiving Tds | 0.2 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
K.Allen RB | WAS | Rb Rushing Tds | 0.1 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
K.Allen RB | WAS | Rush yds | 22.8 | - | - | - | O - / U - | Low | OK |
Player Projections
QB Projections
J.Daniels #5 | WAS | 1 | 26 | 195.8 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 0.3 | 48.8 |
S.Darnold #14 | SEA | 1 | 18 | 225.6 | 1.4 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 |
M.Mariota #8 | WAS | 2 | 14 | 155.0 | 1.1 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 28.0 |
D.Lock #2 | SEA | 2 | 9 | 108.9 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 2.4 |
J.Milroe #6 | SEA | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
Offense Projections
T.McLaurin #17 | WAS | 1 | 109 | 0.7 | 64.4 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 65.1 | 0.4 |
J.Smith-Njigba #11 | SEA | 1 | 53 | 1.2 | 72.2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 73.4 | 0.5 |
J.Price #8 | SEA | 2 | 2 | 52.0 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 |
R.White #1 | WAS | 2 | 2 | 32.5 | 22.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 |
J.Croskey-Merritt #22 | WAS | 3 | 19 | 47.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 51.4 | 0.5 |
E.Wilson #23 | SEA | 3 | 2 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 0.0 |
C.Kupp #10 | SEA | 4 | 18 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 36.0 | 0.1 |
S.Diggs #3 | WAS | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 51.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 51.0 | 1.5 |
A.Williams #14 | WAS | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 44.0 | 0.5 |
V.Jones #33 | SEA | 5 | 1 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 |
R.Shaheed #22 | SEA | 6 | 11 | 6.2 | 20.6 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 26.8 | 0.0 |
K.Allen #31 | WAS | 6 | 2 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
D.Brown #6 | WAS | 7 | 46 | 0.8 | 17.5 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 18.3 | 0.1 |
A.Barner #88 | SEA | 7 | 33 | 0.5 | 23.8 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 24.2 | 0.4 |
L.McCaffrey #11 | WAS | 8 | 21 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 17.7 | 0.1 |
T.Horton #15 | SEA | 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 20.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 20.1 | 0.6 |
E.Arroyo #18 | SEA | 9 | 14 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 14.0 | 0.1 |
C.Okonkwo #85 | WAS | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 |
G.Holani #36 | SEA | 10 | 14 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 10.1 | 0.1 |
T.Burks #13 | WAS | 10 | 9 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 14.4 | 0.1 |
Defense Projections
P.O'Connell #52 | SEA | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
R.Barber #50 | WAS | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 |
L.Williams #99 | SEA | 2 | 34 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 9.2 |
F.Luvu #4 | WAS | 2 | 16 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 8.8 |
B.Murphy #91 | SEA | 3 | 12 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 8.3 |
J.Jean-Baptiste #41 | WAS | 3 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
J.Reed #90 | SEA | 4 | 66 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 6.9 |
D.Armstrong #92 | WAS | 4 | 18 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6.9 |
D.Payne #94 | WAS | 5 | 74 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7.2 |
U.Nwosu #7 | SEA | 5 | 36 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7.9 |
D.Lawrence #0 | SEA | 6 | 13 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7.0 |
J.Reaves #39 | WAS | 6 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
D.Thomas #32 | SEA | 7 | 8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 6.9 |
J.Martin #20 | WAS | 7 | 8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
J.Kinlaw #99 | WAS | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
T.Okada #39 | SEA | 8 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5.6 |
T.Knight #48 | SEA | 9 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 8.4 |
M.Sainristil #0 | WAS | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
D.Hall #58 | SEA | 10 | 29 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 3.3 |
J.Magee #58 | WAS | 10 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |