Matty The Bookie
Back to week 5

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 8:25 PM UTC

SF at SEA

Pick
SF
Confidence
38.5%
Margin
+2.7
Odds
+160

Model Read

The home-team number says SEA wins about 38 out of 100 times. Because the pick is SF, use the other side of that math: SF wins about 62 out of 100 times. The +2.7 margin is written from SEA's side, so it means SEA by about 2.7 points. Odds +160 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SF: 61.5% win prob | margin +2.7 pts | confidence: 61.5% away | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+12, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.5, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.3 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+12, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.5, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.3; oppose none

Player Props

Game Prop Board

S.Darnold
QB
SEAQB pass yds165.7231.5-65.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEARush yds48.562.5-14.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFRush yds26.314.5+11.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112LowOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFRush yds60.549.5+11.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAReceiving yds32.923.5+9.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFReceiving yds43.934.5+9.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAReceiving yds18.311.5+6.8fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFReceiving yds48.353.5-5.2hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAReceiving yds25.020.5+4.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAReceiving yds23.321.5+1.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
F.Warner
LB
SFSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +800 / U -MediumOK
M.Williams
DL
SFSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +400 / U -MediumInjury Review
Osa Odighizuwa
DL
SFSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +490 / U -HighOK
D.Lawrence
LB
SEASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +460 / U -HighOK
J.Reed
DL
SEASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +412 / U -MediumOK
Romello Height
DL
SFSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +580 / U -LowOK
Nick Emmanwori
DB
SEASacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +930 / U -MediumOK
D.Hall
LB
SEASacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +550 / U -MediumOK
B.Murphy
DL
SEASacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +450 / U -HighOK
G.Holani
RB
SEARush yds19.218.5+0.7fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumInjury Review
K.Black
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
J.James
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -MediumOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
J.James
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
G.Holani
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Black
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -LowOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
B.Purdy
QB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Black
RB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -LowOK
J.James
RB
SFFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +13000 / U -LowOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -MediumOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
K.Black
RB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -LowOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
G.Holani
RB
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +850 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEALast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +575 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEALast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1100 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1100 / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +900 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Horton
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +8000 / U -MediumOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
M.Evans
WR
SFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Evans
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Holani
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +300 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Black
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -LowFallback Line
J.James
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3000 / U -LowFallback Line
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +460 / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Watkins
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -LowFallback Line
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -MediumOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -LowOK
K.Black
RB
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -LowOK
J.James
RB
SFAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3000 / U -LowOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +900 / U -HighOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +300 / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Wilson
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO -105 / U -HighFallback Line
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Wilson
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO -105 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAReceiving yds94.794.5+0.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +320 / U -HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +600 / U -MediumFallback Line
S.Darnold
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds1.71.5+0.2hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
G.Kittle
TE
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +180 / U -HighFallback Line
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +100 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Samuel
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +265 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Evans
WR
SFReceiving yds50.350.5-0.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO -110 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
L.Williams
DL
SEASacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +244 / U -319HighOK
K.White
DL
SFSacks0.10.3-0.1draftkingsO +297 / U -393MediumInjury Review
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO -110 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Evans
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Purdy
QB
SFQB pass yds229.4229.5-0.1draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +600 / U -MediumOK
D.Samuel
WR
SFAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1draftkingsO +265 / U -HighOK
U.Nwosu
LB
SEASacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +294 / U -390MediumOK
M.Evans
WR
SFAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0hardrockO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Kittle
TE
SFAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0fanduelO +180 / U -HighOK
C.McCaffrey
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.50.5+0.0hardrockO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Purdy
QB
SFQb Passing Tds1.51.5+0.0fanduelO -108 / U -120HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

D.Lock
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEALast Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds1.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEAQB pass yds181.5---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFQB pass yds47.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Jones
QB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Thomas
LB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
U.Stout
DB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lenoir
DB
SFSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Robinson
WR
SFAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Robinson
WR
SFReceiving yds30.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFRush yds2.7---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Juszczyk
RB
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Brown
DB
SFSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
N.Bosa
DL
SFSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
P.O'Connell
LB
SEASacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.West
DL
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Bethune
LB
SFSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
V.Jones
RB
SEARush yds7.5---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Tonges
TE
SFAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFLast Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Tonges
TE
SFReceiving yds20.7---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Okada
DB
SEASacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAReceiving yds13.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Mustapha
DB
SFSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Knight
LB
SEASacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAQB pass yds94.5---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Price
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEARush yds32.5---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Watkins
WR
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Watkins
WR
SFReceiving yds29.4---O - / U -LowOK
J.James
RB
SFLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.James
RB
SFRush yds20.3---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Purdy
#13
SF153243.31.919.30.514.7
S.Darnold
#14
SEA120230.41.618.40.05.3
M.Jones
#10
SF212179.21.116.80.04.8
D.Lock
#2
SEA29108.90.89.40.32.4
J.Milroe
#6
SEA330.00.00.00.01.3

Offense Projections

J.Smith-Njigba
#11
SEA1551.173.35.77.974.40.5
C.McCaffrey
#23
SF15274.943.14.96.3118.01.0
D.Samuel
#19
SF28414.559.24.16.373.70.5
E.Wilson
#23
SEA2447.59.80.81.357.20.5
G.Kittle
#85
SF31280.564.54.86.465.00.4
J.Price
#8
SEA3339.77.01.32.346.70.0
C.Kupp
#10
SEA4200.035.42.84.135.40.1
M.Evans
#5
SF440.053.24.36.053.20.5
K.Black
#26
SF5430.01.20.30.531.20.0
V.Jones
#33
SEA5132.00.00.00.032.00.0
R.Shaheed
#22
SEA6137.820.11.73.127.80.1
J.Tonges
#88
SF6100.029.33.44.629.30.5
A.Barner
#88
SEA7350.424.72.63.525.20.3
J.Watkins
#17
SF730.028.71.31.728.70.0
D.Robinson
#11
SF8160.422.51.72.622.90.1
T.Horton
#15
SEA8100.021.51.72.621.50.6
K.Juszczyk
#44
SF91241.717.41.72.319.10.2
E.Arroyo
#18
SEA9140.014.01.11.914.00.1
G.Holani
#36
SEA10169.64.10.60.713.70.1
J.James
#29
SF10115.00.00.00.015.00.0

Defense Projections

N.Bosa
#97
SF1750.92.21.212.5
P.O'Connell
#52
SEA111.01.01.02.0
L.Williams
#99
SEA2340.71.81.09.2
C.West
#99
SF220.50.51.08.5
B.Murphy
#91
SEA3120.61.20.88.3
K.White
#56
SF350.31.20.44.9
J.Reed
#90
SEA4660.61.40.66.9
M.Williams
#98
SF440.30.81.05.8
U.Nwosu
#7
SEA5360.51.40.77.9
T.Bethune
#48
SF540.30.31.06.8
F.Warner
#54
SF6460.20.70.84.2
D.Lawrence
#0
SEA6130.51.50.87.0
D.Thomas
#32
SEA780.40.81.36.9
U.Stout
#20
SF750.20.40.83.6
D.Lenoir
#2
SF8140.10.11.03.0
T.Okada
#39
SEA840.40.50.85.6
T.Knight
#48
SEA9100.30.60.98.4
M.Mustapha
#6
SF960.00.20.81.7
D.Hall
#58
SEA10290.31.30.43.3
J.Brown
#27
SF1040.00.01.31.5