Matty The Bookie
Back to week 5

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC

HOU at TEN

Pick
HOU
Confidence
21.6%
Margin
-7.6
Odds
+363

Model Read

The home-team number says TEN wins about 22 out of 100 times. Because the pick is HOU, use the other side of that math: HOU wins about 78 out of 100 times. The -7.6 margin is written from TEN's side, so it means HOU by about 7.6 points. Odds +363 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick HOU: 78.4% win prob | margin -7.6 pts | confidence: 78.4% away | Offense diffs: favor indoor_diff=-1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+3.5e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+3.5e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.05; oppose indoor_diff=-1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

C.Ridley
WR
TENReceiving yds31.26.5+24.7hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOUReceiving yds35.014.5+20.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENQB pass yds208.9190.5+18.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENReceiving yds63.246.5+16.7fanduelO -113 / U -113LowInjury Review
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENReceiving yds29.916.5+13.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUQB pass yds252.9239.5+13.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUReceiving yds33.920.5+13.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Montgomery
RB
HOURush yds33.943.5-9.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENRush yds22.614.5+8.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
T.Pollard
RB
TENRush yds57.250.5+6.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOUReceiving yds40.034.5+5.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
W.Robinson
WR
TENReceiving yds38.833.5+5.3hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUReceiving yds30.325.5+4.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUReceiving yds82.278.5+3.7hardrockO -115 / U -115HighInjury Review
G.Helm
TE
TENReceiving yds19.916.5+3.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOURush yds30.332.5-2.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
S.Rankins
DL
HOUSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +172 / U -MediumOK
Logan Hall
DL
HOUSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +448 / U -HighOK
Keldric Faulk
DL
TENSacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +610 / U -LowOK
Jacob Martin
DL
TENSacks0.31.0-0.7draftkingsO +220 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENQb Passing Tds1.10.5+0.6hardrockO -170 / U +130HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowInjury Review
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Boutte
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Bellinger
TE
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Pollard
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighInjury Review
F.Moreau
TE
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -LowInjury Review
J.Wayne
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -LowOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Schultz
TE
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Schultz
TE
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighInjury Review
W.Marks
RB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Stroud
QB
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
F.Moreau
TE
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +15000 / U -HighOK
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -LowInjury Review
J.Wayne
WR
HOUFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -LowOK
D.Schultz
TE
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Stroud
QB
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -LowInjury Review
F.Moreau
TE
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
J.Noel
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +900 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +525 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighInjury Review
W.Marks
RB
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOULast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1400 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -15000 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOUFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Stroud
QB
HOUAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +400 / U -LowInjury Review
J.Wayne
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -LowFallback Line
T.Spears
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Chestnut
RB
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +400 / U -LowInjury Review
J.Wayne
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -LowOK
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Noel
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Helm
TE
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +600 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Noel
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
X.Hutchinson
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
Jadeveon Clowney
DL
HOUSacks0.60.3+0.4draftkingsO +131 / U -166MediumInjury Review
D.Bellinger
TE
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Helm
TE
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Schultz
TE
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Hunter
DL
HOUSacks0.40.8-0.3draftkingsO -119 / U -106HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Spears
RB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
W.Robinson
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +900 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Schultz
TE
HOUAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighInjury Review
F.Moreau
TE
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
W.Anderson
DL
HOUSacks0.50.8-0.3draftkingsO -143 / U +114HighOK
K.Boutte
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
F.Moreau
TE
HOUAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
John Franklin-Myers
DL
TENSacks0.50.3+0.3draftkingsO +174 / U -224MediumOK
C.Ward
QB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
C.Stroud
QB
HOUQb Passing Tds1.21.5-0.3hardrockO +115 / U -150HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +1500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Montgomery
RB
HOURb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +135 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Pollard
RB
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +240 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +240 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Ridley
WR
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
W.Marks
RB
HOURb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +230 / U -HighFallback Line
N.Collins
WR
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +150 / U -HighInjury Review
W.Marks
RB
HOUAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +230 / U -HighOK
J.Simmons
DL
TENSacks0.60.8-0.1draftkingsO +100 / U -126MediumOK
N.Collins
WR
HOUAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +150 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Montgomery
RB
HOUAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +135 / U -HighOK
Jermaine Johnson II
DL
TENSacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +175 / U -226MediumOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

D.Mills
QB
HOUAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUQb Passing Tds0.6---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUQB pass yds54.3---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Mills
QB
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Barton
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Hooker
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
C.Dike
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENReceiving yds17.5---O - / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENReceiving yds16.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
F.Moreau
TE
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
F.Moreau
TE
HOUReceiving yds19.5---O - / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENRush yds5.8---O - / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Lassiter
DB
HOUSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Jones
DL
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Williams
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Edwards
DL
HOUSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Winston
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Togiai
DL
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Al-Shaair
LB
HOUSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Gray
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
H.To'oTo'o
LB
HOUSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Stingley
DB
HOUSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
F.Oladejo
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Pitre
DB
HOUSacks0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Harris
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Robinson
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Wayne
WR
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Wayne
WR
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Wayne
WR
HOUReceiving yds20.7---O - / U -LowOK
M.Klein
TE
HOUAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Klein
TE
HOUFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Klein
TE
HOULast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Klein
TE
HOUThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Klein
TE
HOUTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Klein
TE
HOUWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Klein
TE
HOUReceiving yds16.6---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion

Player Projections

QB Projections

C.Stroud
#7
HOU150240.31.320.40.313.3
C.Ward
#1
TEN121220.01.022.50.013.0
D.Mills
#10
HOU243164.70.915.90.65.4

Offense Projections

D.Montgomery
#32
HOU1463.533.53.53.597.01.5
C.Tate
#14
TEN140.0134.011.016.0134.00.0
N.Collins
#12
HOU2680.569.64.77.270.10.5
T.Pollard
#20
TEN23770.413.32.43.283.60.3
W.Marks
#4
HOU32044.214.82.13.059.10.5
W.Robinson
#4
TEN340.561.58.011.562.01.0
C.Ridley
#0
TEN4272.052.43.26.254.50.2
K.Boutte
#14
HOU440.057.54.56.557.50.0
D.Schultz
#86
HOU5530.044.84.56.344.80.2
T.Spears
#2
TEN54625.620.73.03.746.30.2
E.Ayomanor
#5
TEN6200.037.02.55.537.00.3
J.Wayne
#17
HOU640.037.52.56.537.50.0
J.Noel
#13
HOU7213.031.62.02.834.60.1
G.Helm
#84
TEN7200.023.93.14.023.90.1
C.Dike
#17
TEN8210.922.52.63.823.40.2
M.Klein
#83
HOU810.032.02.02.032.00.0
F.Moreau
#87
HOU940.028.53.54.528.50.5
D.Bellinger
#82
TEN940.012.52.02.512.50.0
X.Hutchinson
#19
HOU10451.821.51.83.423.20.1
J.Chestnut
#36
TEN10295.31.80.20.37.10.0

Defense Projections

D.Hunter
#55
HOU1271.01.71.215.8
T.Jones
#56
TEN120.81.01.013.5
J.Simmons
#98
TEN2620.71.41.110.5
W.Anderson
#51
HOU2420.71.51.112.2
S.Rankins
#98
HOU3150.61.30.99.5
C.Barton
#50
TEN340.30.31.08.0
M.Edwards
#97
HOU4110.41.10.58.1
J.Williams
#52
TEN440.30.30.86.3
T.Togiai
#72
HOU5100.30.70.85.2
K.Winston
#23
TEN550.20.80.85.8
A.Al-Shaair
#0
HOU690.21.00.92.1
C.Gray
#33
TEN680.10.40.93.3
H.To'oTo'o
#39
HOU7190.20.30.94.3
A.Hooker
#37
TEN7140.10.20.92.6
D.Stingley
#24
HOU860.20.01.02.0
F.Oladejo
#7
TEN820.01.01.04.0
J.Pitre
#5
HOU9190.10.31.13.4
M.Harris
#26
TEN910.00.01.01.0
K.Lassiter
#3
HOU1080.00.11.44.1
M.Robinson
#21
TEN1010.00.01.02.0