Matty The Bookie
Back to week 5

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC

IND at PIT

Pick
IND
Confidence
40.2%
Margin
+1.8
Odds
+149

Model Read

The home-team number says PIT wins about 40 out of 100 times. Because the pick is IND, use the other side of that math: IND wins about 60 out of 100 times. The +1.8 margin is written from PIT's side, so it means PIT by about 1.8 points. Odds +149 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick IND: 59.8% win prob | margin +1.8 pts | confidence: 59.8% away | Offense diffs: favor indoor_diff=-1; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+30, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.35, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+30, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.35, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.2; oppose indoor_diff=-1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

A.Rodgers
QB
PITQB pass yds254.2223.5+30.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDQB pass yds189.6204.5-14.9draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDReceiving yds26.716.5+10.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDReceiving yds45.154.5-9.4hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDReceiving yds39.730.5+9.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
J.Warren
RB
PITRush yds65.473.5-8.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITReceiving yds33.627.5+6.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITReceiving yds36.141.5-5.4fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
D.Washington
TE
PITReceiving yds26.322.5+3.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDReceiving yds39.943.5-3.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITReceiving yds51.052.5-1.5hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDRush yds86.985.5+1.4hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITReceiving yds20.519.5+1.0fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
J.Tuimoloau
DL
INDSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +350 / U -MediumOK
G.Stewart
DL
INDSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +428 / U -HighOK
C.Heyward
DL
PITSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +402 / U -HighOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -MediumOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +16000 / U -LowOK
T.Warren
TE
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Burks
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -LowOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -LowOK
J.Warren
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +490 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Jones
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +400 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -LowOK
D.Burks
WR
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -LowOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +900 / U -HighOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -LowOK
D.Washington
TE
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -900 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Wilson
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -MediumOK
J.Downs
WR
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Warren
TE
INDFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -750 / U -HighOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3500 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -LowFallback Line
J.Taylor
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +420 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Giddens
RB
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3500 / U -MediumInjury Review
L.Treadwell
WR
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Bernard
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +430 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Burks
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1700 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Burks
WR
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1700 / U -LowOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -LowOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +430 / U -LowOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
T.Watt
LB
PITSacks0.40.8-0.4draftkingsO +102 / U -129MediumOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Washington
TE
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +100 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Downs
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +260 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Jones
QB
INDQb Passing Tds1.21.5-0.3hardrockO +160 / U -225HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +260 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +100 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Wilson
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -MediumFallback Line
K.Allen
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +480 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Warren
TE
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +235 / U -HighFallback Line
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Taylor
RB
INDAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +110 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +235 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +320 / U -MediumOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +180 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +480 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +180 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Buckner
DL
INDSacks0.40.3+0.2draftkingsO +133 / U -169MediumInjury Review
L.Latu
DL
INDSacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +143 / U -183HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
Ni.Herbig
LB
PITSacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +183 / U -237MediumOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQb Passing Tds1.51.5-0.0hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
A.Highsmith
LB
PITSacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO -114 / U -111MediumOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

M.Rudolph
QB
PITAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQB pass yds35.4---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Pierce
WR
INDAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDReceiving yds39.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Bynum
DB
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ramsey
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRush yds28.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Dowdle
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Pittman
WR
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITReceiving yds33.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
K.Benton
DL
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITReceiving yds15.3---O - / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDReceiving yds16.9---O - / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITRush yds9.3---O - / U -HighOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDFirst Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDQB pass yds52.7---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Adebawore
DL
INDSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Harmon
DL
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.6---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDQB pass yds144.8---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Leonard
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
A.Ajiake
LB
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Sawyer
LB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Echols
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Giddens
RB
INDRush yds17.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Giddens
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Giddens
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Porter
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
S.McGowan
RB
INDRush yds19.5---O - / U -LowOK
D.Burks
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Burks
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Burks
WR
INDReceiving yds12.6---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

A.Rodgers
#8
PIT120216.11.620.80.03.6
D.Jones
#17
IND117284.91.526.60.012.4
M.Rudolph
#2
PIT226130.60.812.70.44.1
A.Richardson
#5
IND217141.20.710.40.837.3
R.Leonard
#15
IND3583.00.47.80.05.4

Offense Projections

J.Taylor
#28
IND18894.418.32.43.1112.61.0
J.Warren
#30
PIT16843.220.12.63.263.40.2
T.Warren
#84
IND2210.951.35.87.952.10.4
D.Metcalf
#4
PIT2190.655.94.07.056.60.4
P.Freiermuth
#88
PIT3780.035.93.54.835.90.3
J.Downs
#2
IND351-0.149.94.56.849.80.2
A.Pierce
#14
IND4660.046.62.54.746.60.3
R.Dowdle
#13
PIT4218.514.02.03.532.50.0
K.Allen
#10
IND530.033.34.36.733.30.3
M.Pittman
#11
PIT530.029.72.34.029.70.0
R.Wilson
#14
PIT6130.027.22.03.527.20.3
S.McGowan
#20
IND6422.53.51.01.526.00.0
L.Treadwell
#13
IND7100.024.61.82.224.60.0
G.Bernard
#17
PIT730.020.02.33.720.00.0
D.Washington
#80
PIT8380.019.61.72.419.60.1
D.Burks
#80
IND8214.06.01.02.020.00.0
B.Skowronek
#15
PIT9230.07.40.50.77.40.1
D.Giddens
#21
IND9519.20.00.00.419.20.0
M.Alie-Cox
#81
IND10990.016.01.32.016.00.2
T.Homer
#21
PIT1035.00.00.00.05.00.0

Defense Projections

T.Watt
#90
PIT11141.02.11.212.3
D.Buckner
#99
IND1680.61.70.99.3
A.Highsmith
#56
PIT2600.81.51.110.0
L.Latu
#97
IND2200.61.60.86.8
A.Adebawore
#95
IND3150.40.80.67.7
D.Harmon
#99
PIT340.81.30.33.3
J.Ramsey
#5
PIT440.81.01.012.3
C.Bynum
#0
IND430.30.01.011.0
C.Heyward
#97
PIT51490.61.40.98.3
A.Ajiake
#58
IND520.31.00.00.3
G.Stewart
#90
IND6590.20.70.83.4
Ni.Herbig
#51
PIT6260.61.20.910.1
K.Benton
#95
PIT7200.41.40.56.0
J.Tuimoloau
#91
IND750.01.20.20.8
J.Sawyer
#33
PIT840.31.50.85.8
B.Echols
#26
PIT940.30.50.84.5
J.Porter
#25
PIT1040.30.00.82.3