Matty The Bookie
Back to week 5

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC

LV at NE

Pick
LV
Confidence
38.1%
Margin
+3.1
Odds
+162

Model Read

The home-team number says NE wins about 38 out of 100 times. Because the pick is LV, use the other side of that math: LV wins about 62 out of 100 times. The +3.1 margin is written from NE's side, so it means NE by about 3.1 points. Odds +162 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick LV: 61.9% win prob | margin +3.1 pts | confidence: 61.9% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-3.3e+02, indoor_diff=-1; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-3.3e+02, indoor_diff=-1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

K.Cousins
QB
LVQB pass yds267.7233.5+34.2hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEQB pass yds209.0225.5-16.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVRush yds61.845.5+16.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NERush yds50.337.5+12.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
R.Doubs
WR
NEReceiving yds41.349.5-8.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Young
WR
LVReceiving yds14.66.5+8.1draftkingsO -110 / U -114MediumOK
T.Henderson
RB
NERush yds55.247.5+7.7hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEReceiving yds16.910.5+6.4fanduelO -113 / U -113LowInjury Review
M.Mayer
TE
LVReceiving yds34.930.5+4.4draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
C.White
WR
LVReceiving yds17.421.5-4.1fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVReceiving yds38.441.5-3.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEReceiving yds27.525.5+2.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEReceiving yds35.537.5-2.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
B.Bowers
TE
LVReceiving yds72.373.5-1.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Quay Walker
LB
LVSacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +410 / U -MediumOK
M.Williams
DL
NESacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +286 / U -MediumOK
Nakobe Dean
LB
LVSacks0.41.0-0.6fanduelO +410 / U -MediumOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -LowInjury Review
M.Washington
RB
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -LowOK
C.White
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -MediumOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Doubs
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -MediumOK
D.Young
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -MediumOK
M.Washington
RB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -LowOK
E.Raridon
TE
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -LowInjury Review
D.Maye
QB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
B.Bowers
TE
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1500 / U -HighOK
R.Doubs
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1400 / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -MediumOK
D.Young
WR
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -MediumOK
M.Washington
RB
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -LowOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -LowInjury Review
E.Raridon
TE
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -LowInjury Review
T.Henderson
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
M.Washington
RB
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -LowOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
C.Kiner
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -MediumOK
H.Henry
TE
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
R.Doubs
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +650 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Henderson
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
R.Doubs
WR
NEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Jeanty
RB
LVFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NELast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -1600 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Kiner
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -MediumFallback Line
A.Jeanty
RB
LVRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +120 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Young
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2500 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Kiner
RB
NEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -MediumOK
D.Young
WR
LVAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2500 / U -MediumOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Thomas
TE
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Douglas
WR
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +370 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +360 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +360 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Raridon
TE
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +550 / U -LowInjury Review
T.Tucker
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
C.White
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Washington
RB
LVAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +460 / U -LowOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +350 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +185 / U -HighFallback Line
H.Henry
TE
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +185 / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +550 / U -LowInjury Review
M.Washington
RB
LVRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +460 / U -LowFallback Line
R.Doubs
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +175 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Bowers
TE
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +145 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Washington
RB
LVRush yds30.730.5+0.2fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
M.Crosby
DL
LVSacks0.40.3+0.2draftkingsO -108 / U -117MediumOK
R.Doubs
WR
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +175 / U -HighOK
E.Ponder
LB
NESacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +155 / U -199MediumOK
D.Maye
QB
NEQb Passing Tds1.41.5-0.1hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
Dre'Mont Jones
DL
NESacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +174 / U -224MediumInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NEAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +120 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Henderson
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +160 / U -HighFallback Line
Kwity Paye
DL
LVSacks0.30.3+0.1draftkingsO +198 / U -256MediumInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +120 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Jeanty
RB
LVAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +120 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +145 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0fanduelO +160 / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVQb Passing Tds1.51.5+0.0draftkingsO +103 / U -131HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

K.Cousins
QB
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.O'Connell
QB
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.O'Connell
QB
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.O'Connell
QB
LVQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.O'Connell
QB
LVQB pass yds71.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.O'Connell
QB
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.O'Connell
QB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Hollins
WR
NEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEReceiving yds38.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
I.Pola-Mao
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Nailor
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Nailor
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Nailor
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Nailor
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Nailor
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Nailor
WR
LVReceiving yds21.5---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NEAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NEFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Brown
WR
NEReceiving yds63.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
Ma.Jones
DB
NESacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Booker
DL
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
E.Stokes
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVReceiving yds18.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Pettus
DB
NESacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Hemingway
DL
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEQB pass yds73.8---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Barmore
DL
NESacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Koonce
DL
LVSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Butler
DL
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Laulu
DL
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Gonzalez
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Chinn
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Spillane
LB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Bech
WR
LVAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVReceiving yds18.7---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
C.Elliss
LB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Kiner
RB
NERush yds12.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Young
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Young
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Taylor
DL
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.McCollum
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Pharms
DL
NESacks0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion
L.Larison
RB
NEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
L.Larison
RB
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
L.Larison
RB
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
L.Larison
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
L.Larison
RB
NERush yds6.4---O - / U -LowOK
L.Larison
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
L.Larison
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

D.Maye
#10
NE134246.41.621.30.333.6
K.Cousins
#8
LV14256.52.823.30.0-0.5
A.O'Connell
#12
LV221187.20.917.90.52.3
T.DeVito
#16
NE2160.00.06.00.04.0

Offense Projections

A.Jeanty
#2
LV12159.024.33.54.683.30.6
R.Doubs
#87
NE140.0101.56.010.0101.51.0
R.Stevenson
#38
NE27454.019.92.83.673.90.5
B.Bowers
#89
LV2310.567.06.28.567.50.5
T.Henderson
#32
NE32059.611.71.92.471.30.6
C.White
#82
LV340.039.03.36.539.02.3
T.Tucker
#1
LV4513.435.32.74.538.60.2
M.Hollins
#13
NE4180.242.23.44.742.40.1
H.Henry
#85
NE5820.039.53.55.039.50.3
M.Washington
#4
LV5430.0-0.20.30.829.80.3
D.Douglas
#3
NE6501.635.93.34.937.40.1
M.Mayer
#87
LV6400.023.92.63.623.90.1
J.Nailor
#9
LV730.017.31.73.717.30.0
E.Raridon
#82
NE730.029.32.02.729.30.7
J.Bech
#18
LV8160.017.01.62.217.00.1
A.Brown
#1
NE810.026.03.04.026.00.0
I.Thomas
#80
LV9110.014.31.41.414.30.1
C.Kiner
#9
NE9414.54.50.50.519.00.0
D.Young
#81
LV1040.09.00.50.89.00.0
L.Larison
#34
NE1010.018.04.04.018.00.0

Defense Projections

T.Hemingway
#97
LV141.01.51.316.0
D.Pettus
#24
NE121.01.01.019.0
M.Crosby
#98
LV2920.81.81.411.6
E.Ponder
#91
NE250.81.00.86.4
C.Barmore
#90
NE3350.41.30.76.3
M.Koonce
#51
LV3230.61.40.77.2
A.Butler
#69
LV4250.41.00.87.1
M.Williams
#97
NE490.40.90.96.1
J.Laulu
#96
LV5120.40.80.95.3
J.Pharms
#98
NE560.31.00.84.7
I.Pola-Mao
#20
LV680.40.51.06.9
C.Gonzalez
#0
NE640.30.50.84.5
J.Chinn
#11
LV740.30.50.81.0
R.Spillane
#14
NE740.30.01.03.0
Ma.Jones
#25
NE890.20.21.24.1
T.Booker
#99
LV860.01.20.20.3
C.Elliss
#53
NE970.21.10.13.2
E.Stokes
#5
LV930.00.01.02.7
T.McCollum
#27
LV1020.00.01.02.0
L.Taylor
#93
NE1010.01.00.00.0