Matty The Bookie
Back to week 5

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC

MIN at NO

Pick
MIN
Confidence
38.5%
Margin
-1.6
Odds
+160

Model Read

The home-team number says NO wins about 38 out of 100 times. Because the pick is MIN, use the other side of that math: MIN wins about 62 out of 100 times. The -1.6 margin is written from NO's side, so it means MIN by about 1.6 points. Odds +160 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick MIN: 61.5% win prob | margin -1.6 pts | confidence: 61.5% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-8.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-8.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.1

Player Props

Game Prop Board

K.Murray
QB
MINQB pass yds233.1213.5+19.6hardrockO -115 / U -115HighInjury Exclusion
T.Shough
QB
NOQB pass yds256.7239.5+17.2hardrockO -115 / U -115MediumOK
N.Fant
TE
NOReceiving yds24.313.5+10.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
J.Jefferson
WR
MINReceiving yds70.778.5-7.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
C.Olave
WR
NOReceiving yds86.881.5+5.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Jones
RB
MINRush yds67.470.5-3.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
A.Kamara
RB
NORush yds29.832.5-2.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
J.Johnson
TE
NOReceiving yds40.542.5-2.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Jennings
WR
MINReceiving yds18.820.5-1.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Exclusion
D.Vele
WR
NOReceiving yds43.241.5+1.7hardrockO -115 / U -115HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NORush yds22.223.5-1.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
B.Cashman
LB
MINSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +210 / U -MediumOK
J.Redmond
DL
MINSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
N.Shepherd
DL
NOSacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +265 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Hockenson
TE
MINReceiving yds41.340.5+0.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Jordan
LB
NOSacks0.31.0-0.7draftkingsO +320 / U -MediumOK
Tyree Wilson
DL
NOSacks0.41.0-0.6draftkingsO +385 / U -MediumOK
D.Claiborne
RB
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
J.Jefferson
WR
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Murray
QB
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Hockenson
TE
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
K.Miller
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
J.Jennings
WR
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +19000 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
C.Olave
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
D.Vele
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +50000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
D.Vele
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
B.Lance
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -LowOK
D.Claiborne
RB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -LowOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -LowOK
D.Dallas
RB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
T.Hockenson
TE
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
K.Murray
QB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Jennings
WR
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5500 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
C.Olave
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1700 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -MediumOK
C.Olave
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
D.Dallas
RB
MINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
T.Shough
QB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -LowOK
D.Claiborne
RB
MINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -LowOK
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -LowOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -LowOK
A.Jones
RB
MINThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighInjury Review
N.Fant
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
D.Claiborne
RB
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -LowOK
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -LowOK
K.Miller
RB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
A.Kamara
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Dallas
RB
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +5000 / U -HighOK
K.Murray
QB
MINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
C.Donaldson
RB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -LowOK
D.Vele
WR
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
J.Johnson
TE
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1200 / U -HighOK
J.Jefferson
WR
MINTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Miller
RB
NOFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
A.Jones
RB
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -900 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Hockenson
TE
MINFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
J.Jefferson
WR
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Hockenson
TE
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
K.Murray
QB
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Kamara
RB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2200 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Shough
QB
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -MediumOK
J.Jennings
WR
MINLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
C.Olave
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -HighOK
D.Vele
WR
NOLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
J.Jennings
WR
MINFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Kamara
RB
NOFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Jones
RB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Jefferson
WR
MINFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Jones
RB
MINFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +400 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Donaldson
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -LowFallback Line
A.Kamara
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Lance
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -LowFallback Line
B.Lance
WR
NOAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -LowOK
D.Claiborne
RB
MINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -LowOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NOAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -LowOK
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -LowFallback Line
D.Claiborne
RB
MINRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -LowFallback Line
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -LowOK
D.Dallas
RB
MINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Dallas
RB
MINRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Murray
QB
MINQb Passing Tds1.21.5-0.3fanduelO +132 / U -174HighInjury Exclusion
K.Miller
RB
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
T.Hockenson
TE
MINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +230 / U -HighOK
N.Fant
TE
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
K.Miller
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Jennings
WR
MINWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Hockenson
TE
MINWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +230 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Shough
QB
NOAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -MediumOK
D.Vele
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +370 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Jennings
WR
MINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
K.Murray
QB
MINAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighInjury Exclusion
N.Fant
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +900 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Vele
WR
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +370 / U -HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +190 / U -HighOK
C.Olave
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +190 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Jefferson
WR
MINWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +165 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Turner
LB
MINSacks0.40.3+0.2draftkingsO -131 / U +104HighOK
A.Jones
RB
MINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -105 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Johnson
TE
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +300 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Johnson
TE
NOAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +300 / U -HighOK
C.Young
LB
NOSacks0.60.8-0.2draftkingsO -103 / U -122MediumOK
J.Jefferson
WR
MINAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +165 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Jones
RB
MINRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -105 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Shough
QB
NOQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1hardrockO +140 / U -190MediumOK
A.Van Ginkel
LB
MINSacks0.30.3+0.1draftkingsO +122 / U -155MediumOK
C.Granderson
LB
NOSacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +171 / U -220MediumOK
A.Kamara
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.50.5-0.0fanduelO +170 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Kamara
RB
NOAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0fanduelO +170 / U -HighInjury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

C.Wentz
QB
MINAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Wentz
QB
MINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Wentz
QB
MINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Wentz
QB
MINQb Passing Tds1.6---O - / U -HighOK
C.Wentz
QB
MINQB pass yds205.8---O - / U -HighOK
C.Wentz
QB
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Wentz
QB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Addison
WR
MINAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Addison
WR
MINFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Addison
WR
MINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Addison
WR
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Addison
WR
MINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Addison
WR
MINWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Addison
WR
MINReceiving yds42.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Etienne
RB
NOAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NORb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NORush yds50.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Etienne
RB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
E.Wilson
LB
MINSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Mason
RB
MINAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Mason
RB
MINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Mason
RB
MINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Mason
RB
MINRb Rushing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Mason
RB
MINRush yds56.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Mason
RB
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Mason
RB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Oliver
TE
MINReceiving yds17.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Dallas
RB
MINRush yds9.6---O - / U -HighOK
D.Dallas
RB
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Werner
LB
NOSacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Chambliss
LB
MINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOQB pass yds76.3---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Rattler
QB
NOTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Stalbird
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.McCarthy
QB
MINAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.McCarthy
QB
MINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.McCarthy
QB
MINLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.McCarthy
QB
MINQb Passing Tds0.7---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.McCarthy
QB
MINQB pass yds137.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.McCarthy
QB
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
J.McCarthy
QB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
M.Brosmer
QB
MINAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Brosmer
QB
MINFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Brosmer
QB
MINLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Brosmer
QB
MINQb Passing Tds0.5---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Brosmer
QB
MINQB pass yds60.7---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Brosmer
QB
MINThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
M.Brosmer
QB
MINTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
C.Rumph
LB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Th.Jackson
DB
MINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Howden
DB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Ingram-Dawkins
DL
MINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Reid
DB
NOSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
H.Smith
DB
MINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Austin
WR
NOAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
K.Austin
WR
NOReceiving yds18.9---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
I.Pace
LB
MINSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Boyd
DL
NOSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Lance
WR
NOLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
B.Lance
WR
NOReceiving yds14.3---O - / U -LowOK
D.Claiborne
RB
MINRush yds13.1---O - / U -LowOK
G.Bartholomew
TE
MINReceiving yds13.2---O - / U -LowOK
C.Donaldson
RB
NORush yds18.3---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

T.Shough
#6
NO115319.31.930.90.022.0
K.Murray
#1
MIN13371.00.739.00.033.3
S.Rattler
#2
NO216181.40.819.00.319.6
C.Wentz
#11
MIN27252.61.722.30.09.6
J.McCarthy
#18
MIN310163.21.114.00.018.1
M.Brosmer
#12
MIN4746.90.06.70.01.6

Offense Projections

A.Kamara
#41
NO112957.339.14.96.296.40.7
J.Jefferson
#18
MIN1970.491.16.29.391.50.5
C.Olave
#12
NO2590.179.86.19.479.90.4
A.Jones
#33
MIN23362.921.52.83.884.40.3
J.Addison
#3
MIN3502.054.43.96.656.50.5
T.Etienne
#3
NO3342.717.03.74.359.70.0
J.Mason
#27
MIN41751.53.00.80.954.50.5
D.Vele
#14
NO4130.057.35.27.857.30.5
T.Hockenson
#87
MIN5540.047.55.06.847.50.2
N.Fant
#87
NO530.044.05.38.044.02.0
J.Johnson
#83
NO6820.036.33.24.636.30.3
J.Oliver
#84
MIN6380.019.01.72.219.00.2
K.Miller
#5
NO72326.29.11.21.635.30.2
D.Dallas
#31
MIN745.011.51.51.516.50.0
B.Lance
#18
NO840.028.52.56.528.50.0
D.Claiborne
#21
MIN838.71.30.70.710.00.0
K.Austin
#81
NO9140.621.31.83.321.90.1
G.Bartholomew
#86
MIN910.08.02.02.08.00.0
C.Donaldson
#43
NO10414.51.51.52.016.00.0
J.Jennings
#14
MIN1030.06.01.32.76.00.0

Defense Projections

C.Jordan
#94
NO11680.81.51.010.6
C.Chambliss
#32
MIN111.01.01.04.0
A.Van Ginkel
#43
MIN2250.71.31.211.1
C.Young
#99
NO2210.71.70.911.1
D.Turner
#15
MIN3150.71.30.910.6
I.Stalbird
#44
NO330.71.00.710.0
C.Granderson
#96
NO4530.71.31.09.1
E.Wilson
#55
MIN4290.51.01.29.5
C.Rumph
#58
NO550.40.80.65.0
Th.Jackson
#26
MIN540.50.80.810.3
N.Shepherd
#93
NO6210.41.30.55.5
J.Redmond
#61
MIN6140.50.61.39.2
J.Howden
#31
NO740.30.30.54.0
T.Ingram-Dawkins
#90
MIN720.50.51.07.0
B.Cashman
#51
MIN8150.40.90.86.3
J.Reid
#21
NO830.20.30.72.8
H.Smith
#22
MIN9670.30.70.85.8
P.Werner
#20
NO9190.10.30.92.4
I.Pace
#0
MIN10210.31.10.53.2
K.Boyd
#97
NO1010.01.00.00.0