Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 8:05 PM UTC

ARI at LA

Pick
LA
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
+8.0
Odds
-200

Model Read

The model says LA wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +8.0 margin is written from LA's side, so it means LA by about 8.0 points. Odds -200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick LA: 66.7% win prob | margin +8.0 pts | confidence: 66.7% home | Offense diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.02; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-9.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.02 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-9.2e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.02

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
ARI 18, LA 16
Pick?
LA ML
Result
Loss
SU
Loss
ATS
Unavailable
Margin Error
10.0
Moneyline Profit
-

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Allgeier
RB
ARIRush yds19.446.5-27.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAQB pass yds296.1279.5+16.6draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIReceiving yds44.858.5-13.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LAReceiving yds79.492.5-13.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIReceiving yds52.864.5-11.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LARush yds31.842.5-10.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAReceiving yds41.931.5+10.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
E.Higgins
TE
ARIReceiving yds21.214.5+6.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LARush yds74.169.5+4.6fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAReceiving yds14.911.5+3.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIQB pass yds234.3236.5-2.2draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LAReceiving yds59.557.5+2.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIReceiving yds34.532.5+2.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Ma.Wilson
LB
ARISacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +550 / U -MediumOK
Z.Collins
LB
ARISacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +450 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Burch
LB
ARISacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +750 / U -MediumOK
W.Nolen
DL
ARISacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +470 / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Browning
LB
ARISacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +520 / U -MediumOK
B.Fiske
DL
LASacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +296 / U -HighOK
K.Turner
DL
LASacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +168 / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Nacua
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1400 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -MediumOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
M.Stafford
QB
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +12000 / U -LowOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1300 / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Parkinson
TE
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +575 / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +410 / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +900 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Higgins
TE
ARILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -MediumOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Atwell
WR
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +650 / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
T.McBride
TE
ARILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighOK
T.Allgeier
RB
ARILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LALast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -900 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LAFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
D.Adams
WR
LATwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1600 / U -HighOK
K.Williams
RB
LATwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Whittington
WR
LAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +2250 / U -LowFallback Line
R.Virgil
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +2250 / U -LowOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Adams
WR
LAAnytime Td0.90.5+0.4draftkingsO -130 / U -HighOK
E.Higgins
TE
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +950 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Atwell
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Higgins
TE
ARIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +950 / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
K.Bourne
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Atwell
WR
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Brissett
QB
ARIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +850 / U -HighOK
C.Parkinson
TE
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +145 / U -HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +250 / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Knight
RB
ARIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAQb Passing Tds2.22.5-0.3draftkingsO +107 / U -136HighOK
T.Higbee
TE
LAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +250 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +115 / U -HighOK
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +210 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumFallback Line
T.McBride
TE
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +160 / U -HighFallback Line
Mi.Wilson
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +210 / U -HighOK
B.Corum
RB
LARb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +145 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Allgeier
RB
ARIRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +115 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Williams
RB
LARb Rushing Tds0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +130 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Williams
RB
LAAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +130 / U -HighOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumOK
T.McBride
TE
ARIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +160 / U -HighOK
J.Brissett
QB
ARIQb Passing Tds1.31.5-0.2fanduelO +130 / U -170HighOK
J.Sweat
LB
ARISacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +217 / U -282HighOK
P.Nacua
WR
LAAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +110 / U -HighOK
B.Young
LB
LASacks0.80.8+0.1draftkingsO -125 / U -101HighInjury Review
J.Stewart
LB
LASacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +183 / U -236HighInjury Review
P.Nacua
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5-0.0hardrockO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Adams
WR
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO -130 / U -HighFallback Line

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

M.Stafford
QB
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Stafford
QB
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Stills
DL
ARISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Harrison
WR
ARIAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
M.Harrison
WR
ARIFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
M.Harrison
WR
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
M.Harrison
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
M.Harrison
WR
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
M.Harrison
WR
ARIWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
M.Harrison
WR
ARIReceiving yds28.6---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
K.Curl
DB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Robinson
DL
ARISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Atwell
WR
LAReceiving yds17.8---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Knight
RB
ARIRush yds13.8---O - / U -HighOK
J.McCollough
DB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Whittington
WR
LAReceiving yds14.3---O - / U -HighOK
B.Baker
DB
ARISacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
R.Rivers
RB
LAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LARush yds12.8---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Rivers
RB
LATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Davis
DL
LASacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Johnson
LB
LASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Love
RB
ARIAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Love
RB
ARIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Love
RB
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Love
RB
ARIRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Love
RB
ARIRush yds45.9---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Love
RB
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
J.Love
RB
ARITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
L.Murchison
DL
LASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Collier
DL
ARISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Ferguson
TE
LAAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.Ferguson
TE
LAReceiving yds20.4---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
Q.Lake
DB
LASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Quitoriano
TE
ARIReceiving yds13.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAQB pass yds62.8---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
S.Bennett
QB
LATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARILast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
R.Virgil
WR
ARIReceiving yds18.3---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

M.Stafford
#9
LA179265.61.922.80.62.3
J.Brissett
#7
ARI119244.31.824.60.013.1
S.Bennett
#13
LA2113.00.02.00.09.0

Offense Projections

T.McBride
#85
ARI1640.059.16.18.159.10.3
P.Nacua
#12
LA1475.396.37.310.2101.70.5
K.Williams
#23
LA25872.016.32.43.288.30.8
J.Love
#4
ARI2549.07.22.22.856.20.4
M.Harrison
#18
ARI3330.047.83.36.147.80.4
D.Adams
#17
LA3190.064.74.68.464.70.9
Mi.Wilson
#14
ARI4510.147.23.86.047.30.3
B.Corum
#24
LA43631.54.60.60.936.10.2
T.Higbee
#89
LA51310.031.93.14.531.90.2
K.Bourne
#17
ARI540.044.54.35.544.50.0
T.Atwell
#8
LA6521.430.12.13.531.50.1
Z.Knight
#20
ARI61421.511.41.62.232.90.4
C.Parkinson
#84
LA7330.022.02.33.422.00.3
T.Allgeier
#22
ARI7523.88.82.42.432.60.2
T.Ferguson
#18
LA8140.021.01.32.621.00.3
R.Virgil
#82
ARI810.029.02.05.029.00.0
E.Higgins
#84
ARI9440.016.61.62.016.60.1
J.Whittington
#88
LA9241.019.81.82.320.80.0
R.Rivers
#20
LA102115.04.30.80.819.20.0
T.Quitoriano
#47
ARI1010.015.02.02.015.02.0

Defense Projections

J.Sweat
#10
ARI1121.01.41.113.5
D.Johnson
#94
LA160.81.50.810.7
L.Murchison
#52
LA250.81.01.013.4
J.Burch
#52
ARI211.01.01.016.0
D.Stills
#55
ARI3130.61.00.89.1
J.Stewart
#10
LA340.81.50.88.0
L.Collier
#91
ARI470.51.10.65.2
K.Curl
#3
LA440.80.80.86.3
K.Turner
#91
LA5330.71.30.811.9
W.Nolen
#97
ARI550.41.01.06.2
B.Fiske
#55
LA6160.71.30.913.7
D.Robinson
#56
ARI650.40.61.03.8
B.Young
#0
LA7390.71.60.87.8
Z.Collins
#25
ARI7360.30.80.97.3
B.Browning
#5
ARI8120.30.70.74.5
J.McCollough
#2
LA830.71.00.714.7
Ma.Wilson
#1
ARI9100.30.80.75.3
Q.Lake
#37
LA980.50.50.66.3
B.Baker
#3
ARI10460.20.41.14.8
T.Davis
#90
LA1050.30.60.66.2