Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 5:00 PM UTC

TEN at IND

Pick
IND
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
+5.9
Odds
-200

Model Read

The model says IND wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +5.9 margin is written from IND's side, so it means IND by about 5.9 points. Odds -200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick IND: 66.7% win prob | margin +5.9 pts | confidence: 66.7% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+2.9e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+2.9e+02, indoor_diff=+1, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.05

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
TEN 26, IND 20
Pick
IND ML
Result
Loss
SU
Loss
ATS
Win
Margin Error
11.9
Moneyline Profit?
-1.00u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

C.Ridley
WR
TENReceiving yds26.612.5+14.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENQB pass yds189.5202.5-13.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENReceiving yds26.915.5+11.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDRush yds78.589.5-11.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDQB pass yds218.2228.5-10.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENRush yds65.857.5+8.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENReceiving yds40.336.5+3.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDRush yds18.214.5+3.7fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
T.Spears
RB
TENRush yds14.912.5+2.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENReceiving yds48.650.5-1.9fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumInjury Review
K.Allen
WR
INDReceiving yds42.941.5+1.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDReceiving yds48.449.5-1.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Tuimoloau
DL
INDSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +592 / U -MediumInjury Review
G.Stewart
DL
INDSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +552 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENReceiving yds16.415.5+0.9fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Jerry Tillery
DL
INDSacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +562 / U -MediumOK
T.Warren
TE
INDReceiving yds47.246.5+0.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Warren
TE
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Downs
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +950 / U -HighOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Downs
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Chestnut
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -MediumOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +14000 / U -MediumInjury Review
W.Robinson
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +12000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Jones
QB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +750 / U -HighInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
C.Ward
QB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Downs
WR
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Allen
WR
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Pollard
RB
TENLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +300 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +210 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +265 / U -HighOK
J.Simmons
DL
TENSacks0.60.3+0.4draftkingsO +138 / U -176HighOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Chestnut
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighFallback Line
S.McGowan
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumFallback Line
D.Giddens
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumInjury Review
L.Treadwell
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Bellinger
TE
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Tate
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +290 / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Chestnut
RB
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
C.Tate
WR
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +290 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.McGowan
RB
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
G.Helm
TE
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Helm
TE
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
L.Treadwell
WR
INDReceiving yds26.926.5+0.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Jones
QB
INDQb Passing Tds1.11.5-0.4draftkingsO +101 / U -129HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENQb Passing Tds0.80.5+0.3fanduelO -255 / U +188HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +850 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Downs
WR
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +200 / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +200 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Jones
QB
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Dike
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
T.Spears
RB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Ayomanor
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
C.Ward
QB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +475 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +155 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Pollard
RB
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +155 / U -HighOK
W.Robinson
WR
TENAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +190 / U -HighFallback Line
L.Latu
DL
INDSacks0.50.3+0.2draftkingsO +167 / U -214HighOK
C.Ridley
WR
TENWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +800 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Ridley
WR
TENAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +800 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +320 / U -HighOK
T.Pollard
RB
TENRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighFallback Line
John Franklin-Myers
DL
TENSacks0.50.3+0.2draftkingsO +205 / U -265MediumOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDAnytime Td0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +190 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +320 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Buckner
DL
INDSacks0.40.3+0.2draftkingsO +103 / U -130MediumInjury Review
T.Warren
TE
INDAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighInjury Review
Jermaine Johnson II
DL
TENSacks0.10.3-0.1draftkingsO +198 / U -256MediumOK
Jacob Martin
DL
TENSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +179 / U -232HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

C.Barton
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Pierce
WR
INDAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDReceiving yds40.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Bynum
DB
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Gray
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.Hooker
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Dike
WR
TENReceiving yds20.3---O - / U -HighOK
D.Bellinger
TE
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Bellinger
TE
TENReceiving yds14.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDReceiving yds16.5---O - / U -HighOK
A.Dulin
WR
INDAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Dulin
WR
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Dulin
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Dulin
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Dulin
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Dulin
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Dulin
WR
INDReceiving yds17.6---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Chestnut
RB
TENLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENRush yds5.7---O - / U -HighOK
J.Chestnut
RB
TENThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Jones
DL
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.8---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDQB pass yds86.9---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Adebawore
DL
INDSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.7---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDQB pass yds116.3---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Williams
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Ajiake
LB
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Winston
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
D.Giddens
RB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Giddens
RB
INDRush yds18.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Giddens
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
F.Oladejo
LB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Harris
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Robinson
DB
TENSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

C.Ward
#1
TEN122217.80.922.60.012.5
D.Jones
#17
IND118297.01.527.80.012.2
A.Richardson
#5
IND217141.20.710.40.837.3
R.Leonard
#15
IND3583.00.47.80.05.4

Offense Projections

J.Taylor
#28
IND18993.818.52.43.1112.31.0
C.Tate
#14
TEN150.0108.49.013.8108.40.0
T.Pollard
#20
TEN23869.912.92.43.282.80.3
T.Warren
#84
IND2220.952.75.98.053.60.5
J.Downs
#2
IND352-0.149.84.56.849.80.2
W.Robinson
#4
TEN350.459.87.610.660.20.8
A.Pierce
#14
IND4660.046.62.54.746.60.3
C.Ridley
#0
TEN4282.051.83.26.053.70.2
T.Spears
#2
TEN54725.120.93.13.845.90.2
K.Allen
#10
IND540.036.24.57.336.20.3
E.Ayomanor
#5
TEN6210.036.12.55.336.10.3
L.Treadwell
#13
IND6110.025.51.82.725.50.0
C.Dike
#17
TEN7220.822.82.63.823.60.2
S.McGowan
#20
IND7521.23.41.01.424.60.0
G.Helm
#84
TEN8210.022.73.03.822.70.1
D.Giddens
#21
IND8519.20.00.00.419.20.0
M.Alie-Cox
#81
IND91000.016.01.32.016.00.2
D.Bellinger
#82
TEN950.011.01.82.411.00.0
A.Dulin
#16
IND10532.612.80.91.615.50.1
J.Chestnut
#36
TEN10295.31.80.20.37.10.0

Defense Projections

D.Buckner
#99
IND1680.61.70.99.3
T.Jones
#56
TEN120.81.01.013.5
J.Simmons
#98
TEN2620.71.41.110.5
L.Latu
#97
IND2200.61.60.86.8
A.Adebawore
#95
IND3150.40.80.67.7
C.Barton
#50
TEN340.30.31.08.0
J.Williams
#52
TEN440.30.30.86.3
C.Bynum
#0
IND430.30.01.011.0
K.Winston
#23
TEN550.20.80.85.8
A.Ajiake
#58
IND520.31.00.00.3
G.Stewart
#90
IND6590.20.70.83.4
C.Gray
#33
TEN680.10.40.93.3
A.Hooker
#37
TEN7140.10.20.92.6
J.Tuimoloau
#91
IND750.01.20.20.8
F.Oladejo
#7
TEN820.01.01.04.0
M.Harris
#26
TEN910.00.01.01.0
M.Robinson
#21
TEN1010.00.01.02.0