Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 5:00 PM UTC

BAL at CLE

Pick
CLE
Confidence
57.8%
Margin
-1.9
Odds
-137

Model Read

The model says CLE wins about 58 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The -1.9 margin is written from CLE's side, so it means BAL by about 1.9 points. Odds -137 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CLE: 57.8% win prob | margin -1.9 pts | confidence: 57.8% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+5.7e+02; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+5.7e+02

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
BAL 10, CLE 13
Pick
CLE ML
Result
Win
SU
Win
ATS
Win
Margin Error
4.9
Moneyline Profit?
+1.46u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Huntley
QB
BALQB pass yds132.2163.5-31.3draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALReceiving yds38.619.5+19.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRush yds26.012.5+13.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEReceiving yds28.416.5+11.9fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEReceiving yds26.938.5-11.6fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALReceiving yds69.858.5+11.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
J.Cuevas
TE
BALReceiving yds16.35.5+10.8fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEReceiving yds55.550.5+5.0fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumInjury Review
M.Andrews
TE
BALReceiving yds32.028.5+3.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALRush yds92.989.5+3.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEQB pass yds207.2204.5+2.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEReceiving yds38.036.5+1.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLERush yds46.945.5+1.4fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumInjury Review
Derek Barnett
DL
CLESacks0.21.0-0.8fanduelO +240 / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Graham
DL
CLESacks0.31.0-0.7fanduelO +210 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Robinson
LB
BALSacks0.90.3+0.6draftkingsO +153 / U -196MediumOK
Calais Campbell
DL
BALSacks0.41.0-0.6draftkingsO +250 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Henry
RB
BALAnytime Td1.10.5+0.6hardrockO +120 / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.01.5-0.5draftkingsO +187 / U -243HighOK
J.Madubuike
DL
BALSacks0.51.0-0.5draftkingsO +250 / U -MediumOK
D.Henry
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds1.00.5+0.5hardrockO +120 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Henry
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Boston
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -MediumOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Bateman
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +13000 / U -HighOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -LowOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Concepcion
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3300 / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -LowOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -LowOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -MediumOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumOK
T.Huntley
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -15000 / U -LowOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighInjury Review
H.Fannin
TE
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2200 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -HighOK
I.Bond
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Concepcion
WR
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -MediumOK
Z.Flowers
WR
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Huntley
QB
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1100 / U -HighOK
D.Walker
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -MediumOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +700 / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Huntley
QB
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1300 / U -MediumInjury Review
Z.Flowers
WR
BALLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +850 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Andrews
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLELast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +850 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -600 / U -HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Henry
RB
BALFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
D.Henry
RB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +370 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +3000 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +320 / U -MediumFallback Line
I.Bond
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Cuevas
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -LowFallback Line
I.Bond
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -MediumOK
K.Concepcion
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +320 / U -MediumOK
J.Cuevas
TE
BALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -LowOK
J.Hill
RB
BALRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +700 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Sarratt
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -LowFallback Line
E.Sarratt
WR
BALAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1500 / U -LowOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
J.Hill
RB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
J.Jeudy
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +750 / U -HighFallback Line
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Watson
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
R.Bateman
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Huntley
QB
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
D.Boston
WR
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +215 / U -MediumInjury Review
R.Bateman
WR
BALAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
M.Andrews
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +280 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Walker
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumFallback Line
H.Fannin
TE
CLEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +235 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Boston
WR
CLEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +215 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Walker
WR
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +1400 / U -MediumOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +170 / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Andrews
TE
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +280 / U -HighOK
Trey Hendrickson
LB
BALSacks0.50.8-0.2draftkingsO -111 / U -114MediumOK
Q.Judkins
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +170 / U -MediumInjury Review
Z.Flowers
WR
BALAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +220 / U -HighInjury Review
Z.Flowers
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +220 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Green
LB
BALSacks0.40.3+0.1draftkingsO +233 / U -304HighOK
D.Watson
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds1.41.5-0.1fanduelO +158 / U -210HighOK
H.Fannin
TE
CLEAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +235 / U -HighOK
Quincy Williams
LB
CLESacks0.10.3-0.1draftkingsO +199 / U -257MediumOK
Jared Verse
DL
CLESacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +113 / U -143HighOK
M.Collins
DL
CLESacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +160 / U -205MediumInjury Review
I.McGuire
DL
CLESacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +155 / U -198HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

L.Jackson
QB
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALQb Passing Tds1.5---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALQB pass yds228.7---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
L.Jackson
QB
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Simpson
LB
BALSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.Schwesinger
LB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Jones
DL
BALSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
G.Delpit
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
C.Moore
WR
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Moore
WR
BALReceiving yds19.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
K.Hamilton
DB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.McLaughlin
RB
CLERush yds16.8---O - / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Corley
WR
CLEReceiving yds9.7---O - / U -HighOK
R.Smith
LB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Campbell
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.McMillon
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Martin
DB
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEQB pass yds53.3---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.Sanders
QB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Huntington
DL
CLESacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hall
DL
CLESacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLERush yds18.8---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Sanders
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLERb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLERush yds14.7---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Sampson
RB
CLETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Walker
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Walker
WR
BALReceiving yds18.5---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Jenkins
DL
BALSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
I.Bond
WR
CLEReceiving yds28.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Ward
DB
CLESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Hibner
TE
BALAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Hibner
TE
BALFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Hibner
TE
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Hibner
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Hibner
TE
BALTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Hibner
TE
BALWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
M.Hibner
TE
BALReceiving yds23.2---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Cuevas
TE
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
E.Sarratt
WR
BALReceiving yds15.8---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

L.Jackson
#8
BAL1120196.51.616.10.455.5
D.Watson
#4
CLE124188.81.118.80.528.0
T.Huntley
#5
BAL226101.80.511.70.326.8
S.Sanders
#2
CLE29155.60.813.40.018.8

Offense Projections

D.Henry
#22
BAL139102.410.41.11.3112.71.1
Q.Judkins
#10
CLE11955.214.42.33.069.50.4
Z.Flowers
#4
BAL2543.865.44.96.969.30.3
D.Boston
#12
CLE250.066.03.25.866.00.6
M.Andrews
#89
BAL31260.548.64.05.849.10.5
K.Concepcion
#1
CLE353.658.67.011.462.20.0
R.Bateman
#7
BAL4670.335.52.64.235.80.2
J.Jeudy
#3
CLE4380.150.33.97.050.40.2
J.Hill
#43
BAL58017.411.91.52.029.30.2
H.Fannin
#44
CLE5210.642.34.36.442.90.5
R.Sanders
#23
CLE6918.418.72.73.037.10.1
M.Hibner
#88
BAL630.023.31.71.723.30.3
D.Sampson
#22
CLE71610.916.92.12.527.90.1
D.Walker
#81
BAL7140.016.60.81.316.60.4
C.Moore
#17
BAL8410.714.01.22.214.70.1
I.Bond
#0
CLE8181.624.21.43.125.80.0
J.Cuevas
#85
BAL930.013.31.01.013.30.0
J.McLaughlin
#38
CLE9320.70.00.01.020.70.7
M.Corley
#11
CLE10177.54.60.70.812.10.0
E.Sarratt
#13
BAL1010.013.01.02.013.00.0

Defense Projections

K.Martin
#38
BAL111.01.01.028.0
D.McMillon
#31
CLE111.01.01.020.0
M.Collins
#96
CLE2100.71.30.76.7
D.Walker
#81
BAL211.01.00.00.0
J.Madubuike
#92
BAL3520.61.30.86.6
A.Huntington
#98
CLE310.51.00.04.0
T.Robinson
#95
BAL4170.51.40.57.2
I.McGuire
#57
CLE4170.31.01.18.7
T.Simpson
#32
BAL5120.40.90.96.5
M.Hall
#51
CLE580.31.30.64.9
T.Jones
#98
BAL6240.30.80.84.3
C.Schwesinger
#49
CLE6100.30.91.16.8
G.Delpit
#9
CLE7280.20.60.94.9
J.Jenkins
#94
BAL730.30.31.06.7
K.Hamilton
#14
BAL8280.30.70.97.0
M.Graham
#94
CLE8100.10.40.71.9
D.Ward
#21
CLE9180.00.30.72.0
M.Green
#15
BAL9130.31.10.53.9
R.Smith
#0
BAL10210.20.61.03.4
T.Campbell
#7
CLE1020.00.50.52.0