Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 5:00 PM UTC

CAR at PHI

Pick
CAR
Confidence
37.5%
Margin
-1.8
Odds
+167

Model Read

The home-team number says PHI wins about 38 out of 100 times. Because the pick is CAR, use the other side of that math: CAR wins about 63 out of 100 times. The -1.8 margin is written from PHI's side, so it means CAR by about 1.8 points. Odds +167 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick CAR: 62.5% win prob | margin -1.8 pts | confidence: 62.5% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-7.1e+02; oppose fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.55, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.35 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.55, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.35; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-7.1e+02

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
CAR 25, PHI 14
Pick
CAR ML
Result
Win
SU
Win
ATS
Loss
Margin Error
9.2
Moneyline Profit?
+0.61u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.McKee
QB
PHIQB pass yds82.8202.5-119.7fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIRush yds21.051.5-30.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARRush yds59.870.5-10.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARReceiving yds74.764.5+10.2fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARReceiving yds34.024.5+9.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIReceiving yds39.230.5+8.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIReceiving yds62.556.5+6.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIReceiving yds23.518.5+5.0fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
B.Young
QB
CARQB pass yds242.3237.5+4.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARReceiving yds50.855.5-4.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
Arnold Ebiketie
LB
PHISacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +399 / U -HighOK
J.Davis
DL
PHISacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +400 / U -HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
D.Moore
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -MediumOK
B.Young
QB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +7500 / U -HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
J.Coker
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -MediumOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
D.Moore
WR
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHITwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5500 / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
B.Young
QB
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -7000 / U -MediumOK
D.Waller
TE
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +600 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
J.Coker
WR
CARLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHILast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHIFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +750 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +475 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHIReceiving yds34.934.5+0.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +900 / U -MediumOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +750 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Sanders
TE
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Young
QB
CARQb Passing Tds1.11.5-0.4draftkingsO +127 / U -163HighOK
M.Lemon
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +750 / U -MediumOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +160 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Metchie
WR
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
J.Metchie
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Moore
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +2000 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Young
QB
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Pierce
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +160 / U -HighOK
D.Wicks
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Wicks
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
D.Waller
TE
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Coker
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +275 / U -HighFallback Line
T.McMillan
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +210 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Cooper
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +1300 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Coker
WR
CARAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +275 / U -HighOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +1300 / U -MediumOK
D.Smith
WR
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Waller
TE
CARAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +350 / U -HighOK
T.McMillan
WR
CARAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +210 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +310 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Smith
WR
PHIAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighOK
D.Goedert
TE
PHIAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +310 / U -HighOK
P.Jones
LB
CARSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +301 / U -400MediumOK
C.Hubbard
RB
CARRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO -110 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Hubbard
RB
CARAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO -110 / U -HighOK
D.Brown
DL
CARSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +380 / U -518HighOK
T.McKee
QB
PHIQb Passing Tds0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO -246 / U +190MediumOK
M.Ojomo
DL
PHISacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +323 / U -432HighOK
J.Carter
DL
PHISacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +142 / U -181MediumOK
Jaelan Phillips
LB
CARSacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +146 / U -187HighInjury Review
N.Smith
LB
PHISacks0.30.3+0.0draftkingsO +119 / U -151MediumOK
P.Umanmielen
LB
CARSacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +176 / U -227MediumOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

J.Hurts
QB
PHIAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHILast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIQb Passing Tds1.6---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIQB pass yds187.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Hurts
QB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHIFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHILast Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHIRush yds54.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
S.Barkley
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
D.Smith
WR
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARQB pass yds42.3---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Pickett
QB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Dalton
QB
PHIAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Dalton
QB
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Dalton
QB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Dalton
QB
PHIQb Passing Tds0.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Dalton
QB
PHIQB pass yds70.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Dalton
QB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Dalton
QB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Ertz
TE
PHIReceiving yds25.9---O - / U -HighOK
X.Legette
WR
CARAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
X.Legette
WR
CARReceiving yds29.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIRush yds38.7---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Bigsby
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Moehrig
DB
CARSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Sanders
TE
CARReceiving yds15.8---O - / U -HighOK
Z.Baun
LB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Moore
WR
CARReceiving yds13.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Hunt
LB
PHISacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
J.Metchie
WR
CARReceiving yds23.0---O - / U -HighOK
W.Shipley
RB
PHIAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIRb Rushing Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIRush yds10.6---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHIThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
W.Shipley
RB
PHITwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Jackson
DB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
B.Young
DL
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Gipson
LB
CARSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Wharton
DL
CARSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
K.Ringo
DB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Ransom
DB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Brooks
RB
CARAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARRush yds17.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brooks
RB
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Cooper
WR
PHILast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Cooper
WR
PHIReceiving yds25.8---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Horn
DB
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
B.Brown
DL
CARSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Trotter
LB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Mukuba
DB
PHISacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Ji.Horn
WR
CARAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Ji.Horn
WR
CARFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Ji.Horn
WR
CARLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Ji.Horn
WR
CARThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Ji.Horn
WR
CARTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Ji.Horn
WR
CARWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Ji.Horn
WR
CARReceiving yds11.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch

Player Projections

QB Projections

J.Hurts
#1
PHI197194.11.216.80.437.7
B.Young
#9
CAR150191.21.219.10.414.7
T.McKee
#16
PHI2699.50.89.00.01.2
K.Pickett
#12
CAR220.00.00.00.010.0
A.Dalton
#14
PHI310.00.00.00.00.0

Offense Projections

S.Barkley
#26
PHI13692.415.52.12.8107.90.7
T.McMillan
#4
CAR1210.066.64.67.766.60.4
D.Smith
#6
PHI2830.063.34.97.063.30.4
C.Hubbard
#30
CAR27950.513.42.02.663.90.4
J.Coker
#18
CAR3250.043.83.34.443.80.3
D.Wicks
#13
PHI350.052.03.45.652.00.2
Z.Ertz
#86
PHI41250.050.54.77.050.50.3
D.Waller
#88
CAR440.037.03.34.837.00.5
D.Goedert
#88
PHI51090.044.03.95.344.00.3
X.Legette
#17
CAR5320.828.92.74.829.60.2
T.Bigsby
#8
PHI61824.22.30.30.426.50.2
J.Brooks
#25
CAR6510.413.21.01.223.60.0
J.Sanders
#0
CAR7270.019.72.32.919.70.1
M.Lemon
#9
PHI75-1.021.63.04.420.60.0
D.Moore
#83
CAR8190.618.71.73.219.40.2
D.Cooper
#80
PHI8110.020.21.42.220.20.4
W.Shipley
#28
PHI9247.85.10.81.012.90.0
J.Metchie
#13
CAR930.018.71.73.318.70.3
Ji.Horn
#19
CAR10116.39.81.01.616.10.0
D.Pierce
#39
PHI10114.0-2.02.05.012.00.0

Defense Projections

B.Young
#94
PHI140.61.00.84.8
T.Gipson
#52
CAR111.01.01.08.0
M.Ojomo
#97
PHI2120.51.40.56.3
T.Wharton
#98
CAR230.71.00.75.7
J.Davis
#90
PHI3160.50.80.95.8
P.Jones
#91
CAR320.51.01.08.5
L.Ransom
#22
CAR420.50.51.010.0
K.Ringo
#7
PHI420.50.50.51.0
J.Carter
#98
PHI5280.51.30.97.3
P.Umanmielen
#3
CAR540.41.00.56.4
N.Smith
#3
PHI6220.51.10.55.0
T.Moehrig
#7
CAR6100.30.71.47.5
D.Brown
#95
CAR7540.21.10.64.3
Z.Baun
#53
PHI7160.40.61.15.0
J.Hunt
#58
PHI8200.41.40.55.8
J.Horn
#8
CAR8100.20.30.97.8
B.Brown
#97
CAR940.10.30.83.0
J.Trotter
#54
PHI920.31.50.52.3
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#2
CAR1060.00.01.22.5
A.Mukuba
#24
PHI1020.30.51.03.8