Matty The Bookie
Back to week 7

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

MIA at NYJ

Pick
NYJ
Confidence
65.4%
Margin
+5.2
Odds
-189

Model Read

The model says NYJ wins about 65 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +5.2 margin is written from NYJ's side, so it means NYJ by about 5.2 points. Odds -189 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick NYJ: 65.4% win prob | margin +5.2 pts | confidence: 65.4% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+8; oppose crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+8

Player Props

Game Prop Board

M.Willis
QB
MIAQB pass yds152.5182.5-30.0draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAReceiving yds34.821.5+13.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAReceiving yds41.233.5+7.7fanduelO -114 / U -114LowInjury Review
M.Taylor
TE
NYJReceiving yds27.720.5+7.2fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJQB pass yds219.0223.5-4.5fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJReceiving yds59.162.5-3.4draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIARush yds47.550.5-3.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIAReceiving yds18.721.5-2.8fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAReceiving yds38.440.5-2.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIARush yds17.515.5+2.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJReceiving yds22.421.5+0.9draftkingsO -112 / U -112MediumOK
C.Bell
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -MediumOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowInjury Review
O.Cooper
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Willis
QB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
I.Davis
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +19000 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Douglas
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -LowInjury Review
O.Cooper
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Tolbert
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -MediumOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6500 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
J.Wright
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1700 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -MediumOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2800 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Wright
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Bell
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -MediumOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -LowInjury Review
D.Herman
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -LowOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
I.Davis
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -LowOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2500 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Wright
RB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Douglas
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -LowInjury Review
O.Cooper
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -LowOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Smith
QB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
M.Willis
QB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
C.Bell
WR
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1400 / U -MediumOK
M.Willis
QB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
WR
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +900 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -MediumOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +600 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -MediumOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1000 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Washington
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +370 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Bell
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Douglas
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -LowInjury Review
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +370 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Taylor
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +430 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Wright
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Herman
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2700 / U -LowFallback Line
G.Smith
QB
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +850 / U -HighOK
C.Douglas
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +425 / U -LowInjury Review
D.Herman
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2700 / U -LowOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +370 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Bell
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -MediumOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Davis
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Wright
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Taylor
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +430 / U -MediumOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
G.Dulcich
TE
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +360 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Washington
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +370 / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Patrick
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
I.Williams
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +390 / U -LowFallback Line
M.Willis
QB
MIAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +400 / U -HighOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +390 / U -LowOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +360 / U -MediumOK
O.Gordon
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +200 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -110 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Allen
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -110 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +155 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Willis
QB
MIAQb Passing Tds0.70.5+0.2fanduelO -198 / U +146HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -110 / U -HighInjury Review
O.Gordon
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1fanduelO +200 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Hall
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -110 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Wilson
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +155 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1fanduelO +102 / U -136HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

B.Hall
RB
NYJRush yds59.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
G.Smith
QB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Achane
RB
MIAAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIARb Rushing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIARush yds52.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
D.Achane
RB
MIATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
R.Miller
WR
MIAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
R.Miller
WR
MIAReceiving yds20.3---O - / U -HighRoster Mismatch
Z.Sieler
DL
MIASacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJReceiving yds38.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Sherwood
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJRush yds64.4---O - / U -HighOK
H.Phillips
DL
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Stephens
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Brooks
LB
MIASacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJReceiving yds22.7---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJRush yds15.5---O - / U -HighOK
M.Moore
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Tolbert
WR
MIAReceiving yds18.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJReceiving yds19.4---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
C.Robinson
LB
MIASacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
W.McDonald
LB
NYJSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
B.McGregor
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
W.Gay
LB
MIASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Briggs
DL
NYJSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
Z.Biggers
DL
MIASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Grant
DL
MIASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Cisco
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Marshall
DB
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Brownlee
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
Jo.Phillips
DL
MIASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Thomas
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJReceiving yds50.8---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIARush yds3.5---O - / U -LowOK
D.Herman
RB
MIAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

G.Smith
#7
NYJ139210.31.018.10.918.6
M.Willis
#2
MIA15312.20.626.20.059.6

Offense Projections

B.Hall
#20
NYJ15963.131.33.54.694.40.5
C.Douglas
#7
MIA120.0113.07.010.0113.00.0
G.Wilson
#5
NYJ2640.167.75.89.567.80.4
D.Achane
#28
MIA24767.728.23.84.796.00.7
R.Miller
#84
MIA330.087.02.33.087.01.0
O.Cooper
#11
NYJ320.066.53.54.066.50.5
A.Mitchell
#15
NYJ410-0.442.43.37.342.00.2
C.Bell
#18
MIA455.236.82.05.642.00.0
B.Allen
#0
NYJ52731.38.51.31.939.70.3
G.Dulcich
#85
MIA513-0.542.53.74.841.90.1
M.Washington
#6
MIA6345.230.03.34.835.20.1
K.Sadiq
#16
NYJ660.526.32.54.026.80.3
J.Wright
#5
MIA72622.42.00.30.624.40.1
M.Taylor
#85
NYJ7160.026.43.45.026.40.1
O.Gordon
#0
MIA82120.72.20.60.722.90.3
I.Williams
#18
NYJ8213.322.82.23.026.10.1
I.Davis
#32
NYJ93014.59.31.11.423.80.1
D.Herman
#34
MIA920.018.01.03.018.00.0
J.Tolbert
#1
MIA1020.011.00.52.011.00.0
T.Patrick
#17
NYJ1020.020.51.53.020.50.0

Defense Projections

W.McDonald
#9
NYJ1290.71.70.910.8
C.Robinson
#44
MIA1150.71.40.87.5
W.Gay
#40
MIA230.70.71.06.3
B.McGregor
#55
NYJ220.51.00.51.0
Z.Sieler
#92
MIA3680.51.10.98.1
J.Briggs
#91
NYJ390.41.10.97.9
J.Sherwood
#44
NYJ4210.20.41.14.8
Z.Biggers
#93
MIA440.41.00.34.1
H.Phillips
#97
NYJ570.10.10.71.4
K.Grant
#78
MIA560.30.80.31.0
J.Brooks
#20
MIA6220.30.51.15.8
B.Stephens
#21
NYJ630.00.01.32.3
J.Marshall
#4
MIA720.00.50.50.5
A.Cisco
#8
NYJ710.00.01.01.0
Jo.Phillips
#94
MIA820.00.50.50.5
J.Brownlee
#2
NYJ810.00.01.01.0
M.Moore
#27
NYJ930.00.01.02.0
A.Thomas
#1
NYJ1020.00.01.01.5