Matty The Bookie
Back to week 8

Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

IND at JAX

Pick
JAX
Confidence
64.0%
Margin
+4.4
Odds
-178

Model Read

The model says JAX wins about 64 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +4.4 margin is written from JAX's side, so it means JAX by about 4.4 points. Odds -178 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick JAX: 64.0% win prob | margin +4.4 pts | confidence: 64.0% home | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-7e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-7e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.1; oppose none

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Lawrence
QB
JAXQB pass yds213.7244.5-30.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDQB pass yds214.6190.5+24.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
P.Washington
WR
JAXReceiving yds49.865.5-15.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDRush yds76.863.5+13.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Tuten
RB
JAXRush yds52.661.5-8.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDReceiving yds46.839.5+7.3draftkingsO -110 / U -114HighInjury Review
J.Meyers
WR
JAXReceiving yds44.539.5+5.0fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXReceiving yds41.136.5+4.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXRush yds29.826.5+3.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXQb Passing Tds2.01.5+0.5draftkingsO -179 / U +139HighOK
P.Washington
WR
JAXThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
B.Tuten
RB
JAXThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighInjury Review
L.Allen
RB
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Burks
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -MediumOK
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -MediumOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
B.Tuten
RB
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +550 / U -HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
J.Cameron
WR
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -MediumOK
J.Meyers
WR
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1800 / U -HighOK
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
P.Washington
WR
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
L.Allen
RB
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -MediumOK
K.Allen
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +10000 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
J.Cameron
WR
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -MediumOK
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Meyers
WR
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
P.Washington
WR
JAXFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
B.Tuten
RB
JAXFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.90.5+0.4fanduelO -192 / U +142HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Burks
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +950 / U -MediumFallback Line
L.Allen
RB
JAXAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
D.Burks
WR
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +950 / U -MediumOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighFallback Line
L.Allen
RB
JAXRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +215 / U -HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +215 / U -HighFallback Line
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1100 / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumFallback Line
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +270 / U -HighOK
J.Meyers
WR
JAXWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +210 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Warren
TE
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +280 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Allen
WR
INDAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +330 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Meyers
WR
JAXAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +210 / U -HighOK
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +600 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Cameron
WR
JAXWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +400 / U -MediumFallback Line
J.Cameron
WR
JAXAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +400 / U -MediumOK
B.Tuten
RB
JAXRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -110 / U -HighFallback Line
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +600 / U -HighOK
P.Washington
WR
JAXWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +350 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +350 / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +280 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Washington
WR
JAXAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +100 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +100 / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Tuten
RB
JAXAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO -110 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
Bri.Thomas
WR
JAXReceiving yds21.4---O - / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Jones
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Taylor
RB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Lawrence
QB
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Johnson
DB
JAXSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Meyers
WR
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Meyers
WR
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Latu
DL
INDSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXQB pass yds26.8---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
N.Mullens
QB
JAXTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Warren
TE
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
T.Warren
TE
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Allen
DL
JAXSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
J.Downs
WR
INDReceiving yds42.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Washington
WR
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Pierce
WR
INDAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
A.Pierce
WR
INDReceiving yds38.9---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
B.Tuten
RB
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Bynum
DB
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Walker
DL
JAXSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Strange
TE
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Allen
WR
INDReceiving yds49.3---O - / U -HighOK
A.Armstead
DL
JAXSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.Rodriguez
RB
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Stewart
DL
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Jones
DB
JAXSacks0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Treadwell
WR
INDReceiving yds23.2---O - / U -HighOK
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXRush yds8.2---O - / U -HighOK
A.Abdullah
RB
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Gardeck
LB
JAXSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
F.Oluokun
LB
JAXSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
L.Allen
RB
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
L.Allen
RB
JAXRush yds7.3---O - / U -HighOK
L.Allen
RB
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Alie-Cox
TE
INDReceiving yds13.5---O - / U -HighOK
B.Green
DL
JAXSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
D.Buckner
DL
INDSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
A.Richardson
QB
INDAnytime Td0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.8---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDQB pass yds52.7---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Richardson
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Adebawore
DL
INDSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDLast Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDQb Passing Tds0.7---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDQB pass yds105.7---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Leonard
QB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Ajiake
LB
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Murray
DB
JAXSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDRush yds23.3---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
S.McGowan
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cameron
WR
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cameron
WR
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Cameron
WR
JAXReceiving yds19.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Tuimoloau
DL
INDSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Burks
WR
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Burks
WR
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Burks
WR
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Burks
WR
INDReceiving yds16.4---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Striggow
DL
JAXSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
N.Boerkircher
TE
JAXReceiving yds14.4---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDRush yds16.5---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Giddens
RB
INDTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

T.Lawrence
#16
JAX183232.61.421.10.618.2
D.Jones
#17
IND120286.11.426.80.013.2
A.Richardson
#5
IND217141.20.710.40.837.3
N.Mullens
#14
JAX253.80.00.60.0-2.2
R.Leonard
#15
IND3583.00.47.80.05.4

Offense Projections

J.Taylor
#28
IND19193.818.92.43.1112.71.0
Bri.Thomas
#7
JAX1371.956.63.96.658.50.4
T.Warren
#84
IND2220.952.75.98.053.60.5
J.Meyers
#3
JAX2151.051.24.15.952.20.3
J.Downs
#2
IND3540.149.14.56.849.10.2
P.Washington
#11
JAX3410.143.53.25.243.60.3
A.Pierce
#14
IND4660.046.62.54.746.60.3
B.Tuten
#33
JAX42133.19.81.11.342.90.5
B.Strange
#85
JAX5370.034.23.24.234.20.2
K.Allen
#10
IND560.043.04.87.243.00.2
S.McGowan
#20
IND6725.62.70.91.128.30.0
C.Rodriguez
#24
JAX6628.01.00.20.329.00.3
L.Treadwell
#13
IND7130.024.61.92.924.60.0
J.Cameron
#19
JAX760.019.51.32.019.50.3
D.Burks
#80
IND857.012.81.01.819.80.0
N.Boerkircher
#87
JAX850.010.41.21.610.40.2
A.Abdullah
#20
JAX967.50.30.30.57.80.0
D.Giddens
#21
IND9519.20.00.00.419.20.0
M.Alie-Cox
#81
IND101020.015.71.32.015.70.2
L.Allen
#5
JAX10214.53.00.60.87.50.0

Defense Projections

D.Buckner
#99
IND1680.61.70.99.3
B.Green
#95
JAX121.00.51.015.0
L.Latu
#97
IND2200.61.60.86.8
A.Johnson
#6
JAX240.80.50.85.3
J.Allen
#41
JAX3900.71.70.810.1
A.Adebawore
#95
IND3150.40.80.67.7
T.Walker
#44
JAX4490.61.20.79.1
C.Bynum
#0
IND430.30.01.011.0
A.Ajiake
#58
IND520.31.00.00.3
E.Murray
#29
JAX520.51.01.012.5
G.Stewart
#90
IND6590.20.70.83.4
A.Armstead
#91
JAX6170.40.90.65.7
J.Jones
#4
JAX760.30.51.24.7
J.Tuimoloau
#91
IND750.01.20.20.8
D.Striggow
#92
JAX820.31.50.01.0
D.Gardeck
#47
JAX9100.30.90.64.0
F.Oluokun
#23
JAX10330.20.70.93.7