Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC

LV at NYJ

Pick
LV
Confidence
51.4%
Margin
-0.2
Odds
+106

Model Read

The home-team number says NYJ wins about 49 out of 100 times. Because the pick is LV, use the other side of that math: LV wins about 51 out of 100 times. The -0.2 margin is written from NYJ's side, so it means LV by about 0.2 points. Odds +106 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick LV: 51.4% win prob | margin -0.2 pts | confidence: 51.4% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-6e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-6e+02, indoor_diff=-1, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05

Player Props

Game Prop Board

O.Cooper
WR
NYJReceiving yds59.439.5+19.9fanduelO -114 / U -114LowOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVQB pass yds259.4239.5+19.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJReceiving yds35.720.5+15.2fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVReceiving yds37.424.5+12.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJReceiving yds29.122.5+6.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJQB pass yds229.0222.5+6.5draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJReceiving yds58.252.5+5.7fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJReceiving yds22.116.5+5.6fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
M.Washington
RB
LVRush yds37.933.5+4.4fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVReceiving yds46.249.5-3.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
B.Bowers
TE
LVReceiving yds70.168.5+1.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJQb Passing Tds2.11.5+0.6fanduelO -102 / U -130HighOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -HighOK
B.Bowers
TE
LVThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +3000 / U -HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3500 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -LowOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
RB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -MediumOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -MediumOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2500 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +400 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Hall
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +400 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +1400 / U -HighOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +600 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +300 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Williams
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1200 / U -HighFallback Line
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +370 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Smith
QB
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +750 / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +370 / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +300 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +420 / U -MediumFallback Line
I.Williams
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
M.Washington
RB
LVRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +280 / U -MediumFallback Line
M.Washington
RB
LVAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +280 / U -MediumOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +450 / U -HighFallback Line
A.Jeanty
RB
LVRush yds48.248.5-0.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +270 / U -LowFallback Line
A.Jeanty
RB
LVRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Nailor
WR
LVAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +450 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +360 / U -MediumOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3hardrockO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Cousins
QB
LVQb Passing Tds1.71.5+0.2fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +250 / U -HighFallback Line
O.Cooper
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +270 / U -LowOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +170 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +170 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Tucker
WR
LVAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +250 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +420 / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +360 / U -MediumFallback Line
B.Hall
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +115 / U -HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Bowers
TE
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +115 / U -HighFallback Line
A.Jeanty
RB
LVAnytime Td0.50.5+0.0draftkingsO +100 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

A.Jeanty
RB
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Jeanty
RB
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Hall
RB
NYJFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Hall
RB
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Hall
RB
NYJRush yds57.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
G.Smith
QB
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
K.Cousins
QB
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVQb Passing Tds0.4---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVQB pass yds75.5---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.O'Connell
QB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Bowers
TE
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
B.Bowers
TE
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Crosby
DL
LVSacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Briggs
DL
NYJSacks0.3---O - / U -HighOK
M.Koonce
DL
LVSacks0.6---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Tucker
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Butler
DL
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJRush yds61.6---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Sherwood
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighOK
C.White
WR
LVReceiving yds17.3---O - / U -HighOK
H.Phillips
DL
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Laulu
DL
LVSacks0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
B.Stephens
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Pola-Mao
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Mayer
TE
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJReceiving yds17.8---O - / U -HighOK
J.Chinn
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJRush yds11.7---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Nailor
WR
LVReceiving yds19.7---O - / U -HighOK
T.Booker
DL
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
E.Stokes
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Thomas
TE
LVReceiving yds17.2---O - / U -HighOK
M.Moore
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJReceiving yds21.5---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Hemingway
DL
LVSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
W.McDonald
LB
NYJSacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
B.McGregor
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
M.Washington
RB
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Washington
RB
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Washington
RB
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Cisco
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Bech
WR
LVAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Bech
WR
LVReceiving yds18.5---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Brownlee
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Thomas
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
D.Thornton
WR
LVReceiving yds13.3---O - / U -MediumOK
T.McCollum
DB
LVSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVQb Passing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVQB pass yds73.3---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
F.Mendoza
QB
LVTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

G.Smith
#7
NYJ140212.21.118.30.918.1
K.Cousins
#8
LV17268.12.323.00.00.6
A.O'Connell
#12
LV221187.20.917.90.52.3
F.Mendoza
#15
LV3148.00.06.00.03.0

Offense Projections

B.Hall
#20
NYJ15963.131.33.54.694.40.5
A.Jeanty
#2
LV12454.327.43.74.981.70.6
B.Bowers
#89
LV2340.468.56.28.568.90.4
O.Cooper
#11
NYJ230.082.74.04.382.70.7
G.Wilson
#5
NYJ3650.167.05.89.467.20.3
T.Tucker
#1
LV3543.137.82.84.740.90.3
B.Allen
#0
NYJ42833.99.21.52.043.10.3
M.Washington
#4
LV4727.91.60.40.929.40.1
A.Mitchell
#15
NYJ511-0.438.53.06.938.20.2
C.White
#82
LV570.029.12.35.029.11.3
M.Mayer
#87
LV6430.025.32.63.725.30.1
M.Taylor
#85
NYJ6170.028.53.55.128.50.2
I.Williams
#18
NYJ7223.121.82.12.824.90.1
J.Bech
#18
LV7160.017.01.62.217.00.1
I.Davis
#32
NYJ83114.210.61.11.524.80.1
J.Nailor
#9
LV850.015.01.64.015.00.0
I.Thomas
#80
LV9130.013.41.41.413.40.1
K.Sadiq
#16
NYJ970.423.42.33.623.90.3
D.Thornton
#10
LV10110.012.30.92.712.30.0
T.Patrick
#17
NYJ1020.020.51.53.020.50.0

Defense Projections

W.McDonald
#9
NYJ1290.71.70.910.8
T.Hemingway
#97
LV141.01.51.316.0
M.Crosby
#98
LV2920.81.81.411.6
B.McGregor
#55
NYJ220.51.00.51.0
M.Koonce
#51
LV3230.61.40.77.2
J.Briggs
#91
NYJ390.41.10.97.9
A.Butler
#69
LV4250.41.00.87.1
J.Sherwood
#44
NYJ4210.20.41.14.8
J.Laulu
#96
LV5120.40.80.95.3
H.Phillips
#97
NYJ570.10.10.71.4
I.Pola-Mao
#20
LV680.40.51.06.9
B.Stephens
#21
NYJ630.00.01.32.3
J.Chinn
#11
LV740.30.50.81.0
A.Cisco
#8
NYJ710.00.01.01.0
T.Booker
#99
LV860.01.20.20.3
J.Brownlee
#2
NYJ810.00.01.01.0
E.Stokes
#5
LV930.00.01.02.7
M.Moore
#27
NYJ930.00.01.02.0
T.McCollum
#27
LV1020.00.01.02.0
A.Thomas
#1
NYJ1020.00.01.01.5