Matty The Bookie
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Published Pick

Mon, Oct 26, 12:20 AM UTC

KC at SEA

Pick
SEA
Confidence
58.8%
Margin
+1.1
Odds
-143

Model Read

The model says SEA wins about 59 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +1.1 margin is written from SEA's side, so it means SEA by about 1.1 points. Odds -143 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick SEA: 58.8% win prob | margin +1.1 pts | confidence: 58.8% home | Offense diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05 | Defense-allowed diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-1e+03, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.2, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.05; oppose none

Player Props

Game Prop Board

P.Mahomes
QB
KCQB pass yds281.3218.5+62.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAReceiving yds38.124.5+13.6fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAReceiving yds21.811.5+10.3draftkingsO -112 / U -112MediumOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAReceiving yds102.692.5+10.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCRush yds94.484.5+9.9fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAReceiving yds33.824.5+9.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAQB pass yds234.3225.5+8.8fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCReceiving yds42.749.5-6.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCReceiving yds22.817.5+5.3draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCRush yds13.48.5+4.9fanduelO -114 / U -114MediumOK
C.Allen
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -LowOK
G.Holani
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4000 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
R.Rice
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighInjury Review
X.Worthy
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
B.Smith
RB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -MediumInjury Review
S.Darnold
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +8000 / U -HighOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -MediumOK
C.Allen
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -LowOK
N.Gray
TE
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighInjury Review
X.Worthy
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +4000 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2000 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Shaheed
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighOK
G.Holani
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -MediumOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +800 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4500 / U -MediumOK
C.Allen
WR
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -LowOK
K.Walker
RB
KCThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +900 / U -HighOK
R.Rice
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Kupp
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
T.Horton
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -MediumOK
C.Allen
WR
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -LowOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1500 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
G.Holani
RB
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2250 / U -MediumOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Horton
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -MediumOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -MediumOK
K.Walker
RB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +450 / U -HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighOK
B.Smith
RB
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -MediumInjury Review
G.Holani
RB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -MediumOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEATwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +650 / U -HighOK
A.Barner
TE
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1800 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighOK
T.Kelce
TE
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +900 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Rice
WR
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +900 / U -HighInjury Review
X.Worthy
WR
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -3000 / U -HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1000 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEALast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1600 / U -HighOK
R.Rice
WR
KCFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Walker
RB
KCTwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +500 / U -HighOK
C.Allen
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +900 / U -LowFallback Line
E.Johnson
RB
KCRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumFallback Line
B.Smith
RB
KCRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1700 / U -MediumInjury Review
N.Gray
TE
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
B.Smith
RB
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1700 / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Allen
WR
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +900 / U -LowOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -MediumOK
S.Darnold
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -HighOK
N.Gray
TE
KCAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
G.Holani
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -MediumFallback Line
P.Mahomes
QB
KCAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +380 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Holani
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -MediumOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +230 / U -HighFallback Line
A.Barner
TE
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +270 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Kelce
TE
KCReceiving yds46.846.5+0.3fanduelO -114 / U -114HighInjury Review
A.Barner
TE
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +270 / U -HighOK
R.Shaheed
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +380 / U -HighOK
X.Worthy
WR
KCAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +230 / U -HighOK
C.Kupp
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +425 / U -HighFallback Line
E.Wilson
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +110 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Kelce
TE
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO +220 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Kupp
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +425 / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +110 / U -HighOK
R.Rice
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +205 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Horton
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumFallback Line
S.Darnold
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds1.71.5+0.2draftkingsO +120 / U -153HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCRb Rushing Tds0.70.5+0.2hardrockO +100 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +120 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Kelce
TE
KCAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1hardrockO +220 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Horton
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +800 / U -MediumOK
R.Rice
WR
KCAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +205 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Barner
TE
SEAReceiving yds24.624.5+0.1fanduelO -114 / U -114HighOK
K.Walker
RB
KCAnytime Td0.60.5+0.1hardrockO +100 / U -HighOK
P.Mahomes
QB
KCQb Passing Tds1.61.5+0.1draftkingsO +152 / U -195HighOK
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
SEAAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +120 / U -HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

C.Jones
DL
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lock
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds1.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAQB pass yds209.4---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Lock
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
E.Wilson
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
E.Wilson
RB
SEARush yds47.9---O - / U -HighOK
G.Karlaftis
DL
KCSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
L.Williams
DL
SEASacks0.4---O - / U -HighOK
B.Murphy
DL
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
N.Williams
DB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
R.Rice
WR
KCReceiving yds66.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Tranquill
LB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Thornton
WR
KCAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Thornton
WR
KCReceiving yds40.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
U.Nwosu
LB
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
A.Gillotte
DL
KCSacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
D.Lawrence
LB
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
D.Thomas
LB
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Review
N.Bolton
LB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Hicks
DB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
V.Jones
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
D.Hall
LB
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -HighOK
P.O'Connell
LB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Reed
DL
SEASacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Conner
DB
KCSacks0.4---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Johnson
RB
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Horton
WR
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
B.Smith
RB
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Smith
RB
KCRush yds11.6---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Smith
RB
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
T.Okada
DB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
V.Jones
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
V.Jones
RB
SEARush yds13.5---O - / U -MediumOK
C.McDonald
LB
KCSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
G.Holani
RB
SEARush yds20.4---O - / U -MediumOK
T.Knight
LB
SEASacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Arroyo
TE
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Arroyo
TE
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
E.Arroyo
TE
SEAReceiving yds11.6---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.Milroe
QB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAQb Passing Tds0.3---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAQB pass yds131.1---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Milroe
QB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
J.Price
RB
SEAAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEAFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEALast Td0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEARb Rushing Tds0.1---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEARush yds40.7---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEAThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
J.Price
RB
SEATwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowInjury Exclusion
A.Armstrong
WR
KCAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -LowOK
A.Armstrong
WR
KCFirst Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Armstrong
WR
KCLast Td0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Armstrong
WR
KCThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Armstrong
WR
KCTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -LowOK
A.Armstrong
WR
KCWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -LowOK
A.Armstrong
WR
KCReceiving yds16.1---O - / U -LowOK
C.Allen
WR
KCReceiving yds14.0---O - / U -LowOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

P.Mahomes
#15
KC1131284.32.124.40.620.8
S.Darnold
#14
SEA122231.01.418.80.05.9
D.Lock
#2
SEA29108.90.89.40.32.4
J.Milroe
#6
SEA330.00.00.00.01.3

Offense Projections

J.Smith-Njigba
#11
SEA1571.474.95.88.176.20.5
K.Walker
#9
KC15133.019.02.84.4152.01.6
T.Kelce
#87
KC21960.167.95.67.867.90.4
E.Wilson
#23
SEA2650.58.30.81.358.80.5
R.Rice
#4
KC3300.666.25.67.566.80.5
J.Price
#8
SEA3339.77.01.32.346.70.0
X.Worthy
#1
KC4355.539.33.55.744.80.3
C.Kupp
#10
SEA4220.035.12.94.335.10.1
T.Thornton
#2
KC5160.041.11.93.341.10.3
R.Shaheed
#22
SEA5156.923.31.93.530.20.1
A.Barner
#88
SEA6370.424.42.63.524.80.3
E.Johnson
#10
KC6512.418.41.41.630.80.0
N.Gray
#83
KC7750.018.31.82.418.20.1
T.Horton
#15
SEA7110.020.71.62.820.70.6
B.Smith
#24
KC8197.99.31.41.917.20.1
V.Jones
#33
SEA8317.3-0.30.30.317.00.0
G.Holani
#36
SEA91810.05.00.80.815.00.1
A.Armstrong
#85
KC910.013.01.02.013.00.0
E.Arroyo
#18
SEA10150.013.11.11.913.10.1
C.Allen
#13
KC1030.09.00.71.39.00.0

Defense Projections

C.Jones
#95
KC11250.71.80.89.1
P.O'Connell
#52
SEA111.01.01.02.0
G.Karlaftis
#56
KC2510.61.60.76.2
L.Williams
#99
SEA2340.71.81.09.2
B.Murphy
#91
SEA3120.61.20.88.3
N.Williams
#20
KC320.50.52.013.0
J.Reed
#90
SEA4660.61.40.66.9
D.Tranquill
#23
KC4240.30.80.94.5
U.Nwosu
#7
SEA5360.51.40.77.9
C.Conner
#27
KC5140.20.60.74.4
D.Lawrence
#0
SEA6130.51.50.87.0
A.Gillotte
#97
KC680.21.00.41.0
N.Bolton
#32
KC7440.10.60.93.8
D.Thomas
#32
SEA780.40.81.36.9
J.Hicks
#21
KC850.10.40.62.5
T.Okada
#39
SEA840.40.50.85.6
T.Knight
#48
SEA9100.30.60.98.4
C.McDonald
#44
KC910.00.01.01.0
D.Hall
#58
SEA10290.31.30.43.3