Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 5:00 PM UTC

NYJ at NE

Pick
NE
Confidence
66.7%
Margin
+8.3
Odds
-200

Model Read

The model says NE wins about 67 out of 100 times, so the pick and the home-team number are the same side. The +8.3 margin is written from NE's side, so it means NE by about 8.3 points. Odds -200 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick NE: 66.7% win prob | margin +8.3 pts | confidence: 66.7% home | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=+2.7e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=+2.7e+02, crowd_noise_score_diff=+0.1, fan_hostility_score_diff=+0.1

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
NYJ 19, NE 26
Pick
NE ML
Result
Win
SU
Win
ATS
Push
Margin Error
1.3
Moneyline Profit?
+0.28u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

G.Smith
QB
NYJQB pass yds184.4213.5-29.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEQB pass yds250.8236.5+14.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEReceiving yds26.913.5+13.4fanduelO -113 / U -113LowInjury Review
T.Henderson
RB
NERush yds44.531.5+13.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
D.Douglas
WR
NEReceiving yds32.521.5+11.0fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NERush yds45.754.5-8.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJReceiving yds27.919.5+8.4fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumInjury Review
G.Wilson
WR
NYJReceiving yds62.270.5-8.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJReceiving yds21.313.5+7.8fanduelO -113 / U -113MediumOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJReceiving yds23.816.5+7.3fanduelO -113 / U -113HighRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJReceiving yds23.416.5+6.9draftkingsO -112 / U -112LowInjury Review
R.Doubs
WR
NEReceiving yds38.331.5+6.8fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEReceiving yds34.227.5+6.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJRush yds59.065.5-6.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJRush yds11.45.5+5.9fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEReceiving yds50.852.5-1.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
H.Phillips
DL
NYJSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +640 / U -HighOK
R.Spillane
LB
NESacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +362 / U -MediumOK
J.Sherwood
LB
NYJSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +409 / U -HighOK
C.Elliss
LB
NESacks0.11.0-0.9fanduelO +300 / U -HighInjury Review
T'Vondre Sweat
DL
NYJSacks0.11.0-0.9draftkingsO +539 / U -MediumOK
M.Williams
DL
NESacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +436 / U -MediumOK
Kingsley Enagbare
LB
NYJSacks0.21.0-0.8draftkingsO +213 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Briggs
DL
NYJSacks0.31.0-0.7fanduelO +320 / U -MediumOK
Dre'Mont Jones
DL
NESacks0.41.0-0.6draftkingsO +242 / U -HighOK
R.Doubs
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumInjury Review
M.Taylor
TE
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowInjury Review
E.Raridon
TE
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowInjury Review
K.Williams
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -MediumOK
H.Henry
TE
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +15000 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Maye
QB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +17500 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +6000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
M.Taylor
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -LowInjury Review
T.Patrick
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
G.Smith
QB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7000 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +22500 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6000 / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Kiner
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -MediumOK
K.Williams
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +20000 / U -MediumOK
E.Raridon
TE
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +6500 / U -LowInjury Review
D.Maye
QB
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -LowInjury Review
M.Taylor
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +800 / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -MediumInjury Review
C.Kiner
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +7500 / U -MediumOK
K.Williams
WR
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -MediumOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -LowInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +950 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1900 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5000 / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
O.Cooper
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowInjury Review
G.Wilson
WR
NYJFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighOK
G.Smith
QB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
R.Doubs
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +2700 / U -HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowInjury Review
D.Maye
QB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Douglas
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -HighOK
C.Kiner
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -20000 / U -MediumOK
K.Williams
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -MediumOK
I.Davis
RB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -9000 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Douglas
WR
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2500 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1100 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
H.Henry
TE
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1000 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2200 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Maye
QB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -8000 / U -MediumOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +475 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Doubs
WR
NELast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
G.Wilson
WR
NYJLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +800 / U -HighOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Doubs
WR
NEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1000 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NELast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +475 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Brown
WR
NEFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +700 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Smith
QB
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +1200 / U -HighOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumFallback Line
I.Davis
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +950 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Kiner
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1700 / U -MediumFallback Line
C.Kiner
RB
NEAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1700 / U -MediumOK
M.Taylor
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +750 / U -MediumOK
O.Cooper
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -LowInjury Review
O.Cooper
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +600 / U -LowInjury Review
T.Henderson
RB
NETwo Plus Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +2000 / U -HighInjury Review
I.Williams
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighFallback Line
I.Davis
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +950 / U -HighOK
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumInjury Review
E.Raridon
TE
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -LowInjury Review
T.Patrick
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
T.Patrick
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +750 / U -HighRoster Exclusion
I.Williams
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1100 / U -HighOK
D.Maye
QB
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +320 / U -HighOK
E.Raridon
TE
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -LowInjury Review
K.Williams
WR
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumOK
K.Williams
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +1000 / U -MediumFallback Line
D.Douglas
WR
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighOK
H.Henry
TE
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +225 / U -HighFallback Line
H.Henry
TE
NEAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +225 / U -HighOK
B.Allen
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +135 / U -HighOK
David Bailey
LB
NYJSacks0.50.8-0.3draftkingsO -112 / U -113MediumOK
E.Ponder
LB
NESacks0.50.3+0.3draftkingsO +105 / U -133MediumOK
D.Douglas
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +600 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Wilson
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +220 / U -HighFallback Line
K.Sadiq
TE
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +500 / U -MediumInjury Review
R.Doubs
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +280 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Smith
QB
NYJQb Passing Tds1.31.5-0.2draftkingsO +181 / U -235HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +140 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Allen
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +135 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Maye
QB
NEQb Passing Tds1.31.5-0.2fanduelO -140 / U +108HighOK
A.Brown
WR
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +140 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Henderson
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +250 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Wilson
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +220 / U -HighOK
R.Doubs
WR
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +280 / U -HighOK
R.Stevenson
RB
NERb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -110 / U -HighInjury Review
R.Stevenson
RB
NEAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2hardrockO -110 / U -HighInjury Review
W.McDonald
LB
NYJSacks0.30.3+0.1draftkingsO +100 / U -126MediumInjury Review
C.Barmore
DL
NESacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +149 / U -190MediumInjury Review
Gabe Jacas
LB
NESacks0.20.3-0.0draftkingsO +180 / U -233MediumOK
T.Henderson
RB
NEAnytime Td0.50.5-0.0draftkingsO +250 / U -HighInjury Review

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

B.Hall
RB
NYJAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJFirst Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJRush yds61.4---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Hall
RB
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
A.Mitchell
WR
NYJReceiving yds34.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Hollins
WR
NEReceiving yds38.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
B.Stephens
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
I.Williams
WR
NYJReceiving yds25.3---O - / U -HighOK
Ma.Jones
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Patrick
WR
NYJThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Moore
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
D.Pettus
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
B.McGregor
LB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
T.DeVito
QB
NEAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NELast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEQb Passing Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEQB pass yds52.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
T.DeVito
QB
NETwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Gonzalez
DB
NESacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Cisco
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NERush yds24.2---O - / U -MediumOK
C.Kiner
RB
NEThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Brownlee
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
A.Thomas
DB
NYJSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
K.Williams
WR
NEReceiving yds26.4---O - / U -MediumOK
L.Taylor
DL
NESacks0.3---O - / U -MediumOK
J.Pharms
DL
NESacks0.1---O - / U -LowRoster Exclusion

Player Projections

QB Projections

G.Smith
#7
NYJ138209.21.018.10.919.1
D.Maye
#10
NE135250.11.721.50.333.4
T.DeVito
#16
NE2160.00.06.00.04.0

Offense Projections

B.Hall
#20
NYJ15963.131.33.54.694.40.5
R.Doubs
#87
NE150.084.45.08.684.40.8
R.Stevenson
#38
NE27554.119.92.83.674.10.5
G.Wilson
#5
NYJ2630.168.15.99.568.20.4
T.Henderson
#32
NE32157.911.91.82.369.70.6
A.Mitchell
#15
NYJ310-0.442.43.37.342.00.2
B.Allen
#0
NYJ42629.57.81.31.937.30.3
M.Hollins
#13
NE4180.242.23.44.742.40.1
H.Henry
#85
NE5830.039.63.55.039.60.3
O.Cooper
#11
NYJ510.030.01.01.030.00.0
D.Douglas
#3
NE6511.536.43.34.938.00.2
K.Sadiq
#16
NYJ650.629.22.84.229.80.4
I.Williams
#18
NYJ7203.223.92.43.127.20.1
E.Raridon
#82
NE740.036.22.83.336.20.5
C.Kiner
#9
NE8522.05.00.60.627.00.0
T.Patrick
#17
NYJ810.026.02.03.026.00.0
M.Taylor
#85
NYJ9150.025.93.44.925.90.1
A.Brown
#1
NE910.026.03.04.026.00.0
I.Davis
#32
NYJ102914.49.31.11.423.70.1
K.Williams
#18
NE10190.220.40.92.020.60.2

Defense Projections

W.McDonald
#9
NYJ1290.71.70.910.8
D.Pettus
#24
NE121.01.01.019.0
E.Ponder
#91
NE250.81.00.86.4
B.McGregor
#55
NYJ220.51.00.51.0
C.Barmore
#90
NE3350.41.30.76.3
J.Briggs
#91
NYJ390.41.10.97.9
J.Sherwood
#44
NYJ4210.20.41.14.8
M.Williams
#97
NE490.40.90.96.1
H.Phillips
#97
NYJ570.10.10.71.4
J.Pharms
#98
NE560.31.00.84.7
C.Gonzalez
#0
NE640.30.50.84.5
B.Stephens
#21
NYJ630.00.01.32.3
R.Spillane
#14
NE740.30.01.03.0
A.Cisco
#8
NYJ710.00.01.01.0
Ma.Jones
#25
NE890.20.21.24.1
J.Brownlee
#2
NYJ810.00.01.01.0
C.Elliss
#53
NE970.21.10.13.2
M.Moore
#27
NYJ930.00.01.02.0
A.Thomas
#1
NYJ1020.00.01.01.5
L.Taylor
#93
NE1010.01.00.00.0