Matty The Bookie
Back to week 6

Published Pick

Sun, Oct 18, 5:00 PM UTC

PIT at TB

Pick
PIT
Confidence
24.8%
Margin
-1.7
Odds
+303

Model Read

The home-team number says TB wins about 25 out of 100 times. Because the pick is PIT, use the other side of that math: PIT wins about 75 out of 100 times. The -1.7 margin is written from TB's side, so it means PIT by about 1.7 points. Odds +303 are the sportsbook price for the pick, not another confidence score.

Raw model read: Pick PIT: 75.2% win prob | margin -1.7 pts | confidence: 75.2% away | Offense diffs: favor altitude_ft_diff=-7.2e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.35, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.3; oppose none | Defense-allowed diffs: favor none; oppose altitude_ft_diff=-7.2e+02, fan_hostility_score_diff=-0.35, crowd_noise_score_diff=-0.3

Final Result

Graded Result

Final
PIT 26, TB 19
Pick
PIT ML
Result
Win
SU
Win
ATS
Loss
Margin Error
5.3
Moneyline Profit?
+0.74u

Player Props

Game Prop Board

T.Hurst
WR
TBReceiving yds32.211.5+20.7fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBReceiving yds46.427.5+18.9draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQB pass yds242.9226.5+16.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRush yds32.020.5+11.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBReceiving yds46.137.5+8.6draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBReceiving yds35.027.5+7.5fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITReceiving yds37.844.5-6.7fanduelO -113 / U -113LowOK
B.Irving
RB
TBRush yds59.164.5-5.4fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITReceiving yds38.134.5+3.6draftkingsO -115 / U -109HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITReceiving yds53.650.5+3.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
TBQB pass yds170.7173.5-2.8draftkingsO -112 / U -112LowOK
D.Washington
TE
PITReceiving yds24.826.5-1.7fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITRush yds61.460.5+0.9draftkingsO -112 / U -112HighInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
TBQb Passing Tds1.10.5+0.6draftkingsO -213 / U +165LowOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +12500 / U -HighInjury Review
J.Daniels
QB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -LowOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +30000 / U -LowOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +20000 / U -LowOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +8000 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5000 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Otton
TE
TBThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +35000 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Washington
TE
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +40000 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITThree Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighInjury Review
A.Rodgers
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +25000 / U -HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +25000 / U -HighOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +4000 / U -LowOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +3000 / U -LowOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7000 / U -LowOK
J.Warren
RB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +800 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +4500 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Gainwell
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +5500 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +500 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1400 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Otton
TE
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +9000 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +11000 / U -HighOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -LowOK
B.Irving
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +700 / U -HighOK
D.Washington
TE
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1200 / U -LowOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +2200 / U -LowOK
C.Otton
TE
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +7500 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Godwin
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +5500 / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +3000 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5fanduelO +10000 / U -HighOK
J.Daniels
QB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -5000 / U -LowOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -10000 / U -HighOK
J.Warren
RB
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +525 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Gainwell
RB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1700 / U -HighInjury Review
G.Bernard
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -4000 / U -LowOK
D.Washington
TE
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1300 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -6000 / U -LowOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1600 / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1000 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
E.Egbuka
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1300 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5draftkingsO +1500 / U -HighOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBFirst Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO +2000 / U -HighOK
D.Metcalf
WR
PITLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -2500 / U -HighInjury Review
B.Irving
RB
TBLast Td0.00.5-0.5hardrockO -1800 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +1600 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITFirst Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +950 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITLast Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO -4000 / U -HighInjury Review
T.Watt
LB
PITSacks0.60.3+0.4draftkingsO -117 / U -108MediumOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4hardrockO +1750 / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighFallback Line
G.Bernard
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +285 / U -LowFallback Line
J.Daniels
QB
TBAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -LowOK
P.Durham
TE
TBAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
G.Bernard
WR
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +285 / U -LowOK
T.Homer
RB
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +380 / U -HighInjury Review
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +370 / U -HighFallback Line
P.Durham
TE
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4draftkingsO +3500 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Washington
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +380 / U -HighFallback Line
D.Washington
TE
PITAnytime Td0.10.5-0.4fanduelO +380 / U -HighOK
C.Otton
TE
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighFallback Line
C.Otton
TE
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +650 / U -HighFallback Line
T.Hurst
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -LowFallback Line
T.Johnson
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +650 / U -HighOK
A.Highsmith
LB
PITSacks0.60.3+0.3draftkingsO -111 / U -114MediumOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +370 / U -HighOK
T.Hurst
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +550 / U -LowOK
C.Godwin
WR
TBAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +450 / U -HighOK
R.Dowdle
RB
PITAnytime Td0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +380 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Godwin
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.20.5-0.3fanduelO +450 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Warren
RB
PITRb Rushing Tds0.20.5-0.3draftkingsO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +290 / U -HighFallback Line
J.Warren
RB
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +115 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +380 / U -HighInjury Review
D.Metcalf
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +200 / U -HighInjury Review
C.Kancey
DL
TBSacks0.10.3-0.2draftkingsO +319 / U -426MediumOK
Rueben Bain Jr.
LB
TBSacks0.10.3-0.2draftkingsO +347 / U -468LowOK
B.Irving
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +170 / U -HighFallback Line
P.Freiermuth
TE
PITAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2fanduelO +380 / U -HighInjury Review
E.Egbuka
WR
TBAnytime Td0.30.5-0.2draftkingsO +290 / U -HighOK
K.Gainwell
RB
TBRush yds12.412.5-0.1fanduelO -113 / U -113HighOK
B.Irving
RB
TBAnytime Td0.40.5-0.1draftkingsO +170 / U -HighOK
Y.Diaby
LB
TBSacks0.20.3-0.1draftkingsO +230 / U -300HighOK
A.Rodgers
QB
PITQb Passing Tds1.51.5+0.0fanduelO +128 / U -168HighOK

Projection Only

Player Prop Projections

A.Rodgers
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
A.Winfield
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBQb Passing Tds1.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBQB pass yds218.3---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Mayfield
QB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
M.Rudolph
QB
PITAnytime Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQb Passing Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITQB pass yds21.6---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
M.Rudolph
QB
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
J.Ramsey
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
C.Heyward
DL
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
J.Parrish
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
M.Pittman
WR
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
M.Pittman
WR
PITReceiving yds32.1---O - / U -HighRoster Exclusion
K.Benton
DL
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBRb Rushing Tds0.3---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBRush yds13.7---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
S.Tucker
RB
TBTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Review
J.Sawyer
LB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBLast Td0.1---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Johnson
WR
TBReceiving yds27.3---O - / U -HighOK
B.Skowronek
WR
PITAnytime Td0.2---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
B.Skowronek
WR
PITReceiving yds15.1---O - / U -HighInjury Exclusion
T.Smith
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -HighOK
P.Durham
TE
TBReceiving yds11.2---O - / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITLast Td0.0---O - / U -HighOK
T.Homer
RB
PITRush yds9.1---O - / U -HighOK
A.Nelson
LB
TBSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
D.Harmon
DL
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
V.Vea
DL
TBSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
J.McMillan
WR
TBAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBFirst Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBLast Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBTwo Plus Tds0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBWrte Receiving Tds0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
J.McMillan
WR
TBReceiving yds24.8---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
Ni.Herbig
LB
PITSacks0.2---O - / U -MediumOK
E.Roberts
DL
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK
R.Wilson
WR
PITAnytime Td0.3---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITFirst Td0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITLast Td0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITThree Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITTwo Plus Tds0.0---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITWrte Receiving Tds0.2---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
R.Wilson
WR
PITReceiving yds30.5---O - / U -MediumRoster Exclusion
S.Dennis
LB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
B.Echols
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumInjury Review
J.Porter
DB
PITSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumRoster Mismatch
Z.McCollum
DB
TBSacks0.1---O - / U -MediumOK

Player Projections

QB Projections

B.Mayfield
#6
TB154238.01.821.80.518.3
A.Rodgers
#8
PIT121217.01.620.80.03.8
M.Rudolph
#2
PIT227125.70.812.20.43.9
J.Daniels
#10
TB23161.71.019.00.047.3

Offense Projections

J.Warren
#30
PIT16944.121.12.73.365.20.2
B.Irving
#7
TB13266.123.12.93.389.20.5
C.Godwin
#14
TB21240.762.95.17.263.70.3
D.Metcalf
#4
PIT2201.153.83.96.854.90.4
P.Freiermuth
#88
PIT3790.136.03.54.836.10.3
E.Egbuka
#2
TB3220.951.43.87.352.30.4
J.McMillan
#11
TB4182.435.52.74.137.90.4
G.Bernard
#17
PIT441.035.03.35.036.00.0
C.Otton
#88
TB564-0.134.43.55.134.30.2
R.Dowdle
#13
PIT5218.514.02.03.532.50.0
T.Hurst
#17
TB640.032.02.04.032.00.3
M.Pittman
#11
PIT630.029.72.34.029.70.0
S.Tucker
#44
TB73320.64.60.60.825.20.4
R.Wilson
#14
PIT7140.025.31.93.325.30.3
D.Washington
#80
PIT8390.019.41.72.419.40.1
T.Johnson
#15
TB8201.423.01.62.724.40.3
B.Skowronek
#15
PIT9230.07.40.50.77.40.1
K.Gainwell
#1
TB958.810.82.23.219.60.2
P.Durham
#87
TB10210.09.00.91.39.00.1
T.Homer
#21
PIT1035.00.00.00.05.00.0

Defense Projections

T.Watt
#90
PIT11141.02.11.212.3
A.Winfield
#31
TB1330.60.90.77.6
A.Highsmith
#56
PIT2600.81.51.110.0
A.Nelson
#98
TB2400.51.10.77.5
V.Vea
#50
TB3660.51.20.77.7
D.Harmon
#99
PIT340.81.30.33.3
Y.Diaby
#0
TB4360.51.31.18.7
J.Ramsey
#5
PIT440.81.01.012.3
C.Heyward
#97
PIT51490.61.40.98.3
C.Kancey
#94
TB5240.51.30.96.7
Ni.Herbig
#51
PIT6260.61.20.910.1
J.Parrish
#25
TB650.40.61.49.4
K.Benton
#95
PIT7200.41.40.56.0
E.Roberts
#95
TB760.30.80.32.2
S.Dennis
#8
TB8120.30.70.98.6
J.Sawyer
#33
PIT840.31.50.85.8
T.Smith
#23
TB9110.20.60.95.5
B.Echols
#26
PIT940.30.50.84.5
J.Porter
#25
PIT1040.30.00.82.3
Z.McCollum
#27
TB1030.00.01.01.7